Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Top Stocks For 2011-12-11-15

JASO, JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd.

SPNG, SpongeTech Delivery Systems Inc, SPNG.OB

 

DrStockPick Watch List!

DrStockPick Watch List! for Friday July 24, 2009

 

My Picks for Friday July 24, 2009 are:

JASO, JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd.

JASO is a fast growing manufacturer of high-performance solar cells that is advancing solar photovoltaics as a financially viable yet sustainable solution to balance the world�s environment and energy needs.

JASO sells its products to solar module manufacturers who assemble and integrate its solar cells into modules and systems that convert sunlight into electricity.

JASO�s Headquarters is located in Shanghai, China with current manufacturing facilities located in Ningjin, Hebei Province and Yangzhou, Jiangsu Province.

The Chinese government will boost subsidies (This could draw more than $10 billion in private funding for projects) for solar power in a bid to juice the development of about 500 megawatts of solar energy in the next two or three years . That�s about the size of an average coal-fired power plant.

SPNG, SpongeTech Delivery Systems Inc, SPNG.OB

SPNG is a company which designs, produces, and markets unique lines of reusable cleaning products for Car Care, Child Care, Home Care and Pet Care usages.

These sponge-like products utilize SPNG�s proprietary, patent (and patent-pending) technologies and other technologies involving hydrophilic (liquid absorbing) foam, polyurethane matrices or other ingredients.

The SPNG�s sponge-like products are pre-loaded with specially formulated ingredients such as soap, conditioner and/or wax that are released when the sponge is soaked and applied to a surface with minimal pressure.

Last week, SPNG announced that the Company has secured approximately $11 million in orders for the month of July by that time.

Yesterday, SPNG announced that its Board of Directors has authorized an increase in its stock repurchase program from 100 million to a maximum of 150 million common shares.

�That action demonstrates the Management and Board of Directors strong confidence in the long term strength of the Company�s cash flow generation as SPNG intend to continue reducing its share structure.� said SPNG�s COO, Steven Moskowitz.

Add JASO and SPNG to your Watch List!, do your homework, and like always BE READY for the ACTION!

Still Bearish on MGM Mirage

A friend of Credit Bubble Stocks stayed at MGM Grand over the weekend. He said the property felt dilapidated, as though the company has been skimping on capital expenditures for maintenance and remodeling. So, it's possible that MGM's already weak cash flow cash flow numbers are being overstated to the extent of any deferred maintenance.

I read a Credit Suisse research report from April with a price target of $12 for MGM - about 20% downside to current levels. They admit that their EV/EBITDA multiple is at the "high-end of MGM’s historical trading range" but justify it "given narrowing spreads on MGM’s bonds and a reduction of bankruptcy risk on bank facility extension."

On the other hand, Goldman Sachs has it on the conviction buy list with a $17.50 price target. They are "confident that the Vegas Strip will continue to show improvement."

People honestly think we will be back to 2007 any day now, even though negative home equity precludes mortgage equity withdrawal spending sprees, there are 40 million Americans on food stamps, and millions are permanently unemployed.

At about $1.25, the Jan 2011 MGM $10 put seems interesting.

Disclosure: Short MGM and long MGM volatility.

Top Stocks For 2011-12-14-19

STDF, Steadfast Holdings Group Inc, STDF.PK

DrStockPick Stock Report!

DrStockPick News Report!

STDF, Steadfast Holdings Group Inc, STDF.PK

“Steadfast Holdings Group, Inc. Subsidiary

Lands $28.6 Million Building Contract“

 

DrStockPick Stock Report! Tuesday July 28, 2009

Steadfast Holdings Group, Inc. Subsidiary Lands $28.6 Million Building Contract

Steadfast Holdings Group, Inc. (OTC PINK SHEETS: STDF) through its Banx and Green Group, Inc. subsidiary has completed a contract to build a minimum of 11 Emergi-Care centers with in house diagnostic equipment for health care providers on the West Coast. The emergence of a shift in medical care for the uninsured away from emergency room medicine fuels a need for these centers. These units are expected to be the beginning of much larger program for this concept. We intend to be a major participant in the expansion of these centers.

We will operate as the general contractor to the Project Manager for all of these sites. Each structure will provide the Company revenue of approximately $2.6 million each giving us a minimum of $28.6 million in total. The provider wants these structures completed and operational within 18 months and is discussing the possibility of at least two more in this time frame.

The structures will contain our SIP panel system for the walls and roof and a new line of interior sound proof panel with additional panels for the shielded areas that contain radiation emitting diagnostic equipment. We are also responsible for providing their alternative energy supply and energy efficient heating, cooling and water systems.

We expect these to be the first prototype design of these buildings with expansion to most states west of the Mississippi River for these health care providers.

The Company will not need financing for the contract as the health care providers will finance the complete project from available resources.

Safe Harbor Statement under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: The statements contained in this release that are not historical, are forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause results differ materially fro, those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including but not limited to certain delays and risks detailed from time to time in the company’s filings with Pink Sheets or the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Contact Investor and Media Relations
Tel: 951-657-8840
e-mail: info@wsmg.biz

John Calash, President
Steadfast Holdings Group, Inc.
641 E Main St
East Haven, CT 06512
USA

Phone: 407-641-0705
Fax: 203-466-0600

Add STDF to your Watch List!, do your homework, and like always BE READY for the ACTION!

Petrobras Now Represents A Solid Value Investment

With continuing concern about the impact of a Chinese economic slowdown on the global economy and the flow on effect this will have on commodities, we are seeing the prices of commodity stocks pushed down. Yet it is my opinion that while this will have an impact on the revenue of basic materials providers such as Brazil based Vale (VALE), Australia based Rio Tinto (RIO) and U.S based Cliff Natural Resources (CLF), the effect on oil and gas producers will be more muted. I believe that the impact on oil prices will be less severe due to some positive signs emerging that indicate the economic outlook for the U.S and eurozone economies is improving as well as the ongoing demand for energy, which is now an essential requirement of all modern and emerging economies.

We are also seeing supply-side constraints emerge for oil that will offset any dip in demand through 2012. At the time of writing Brent Crude is trading at around $126 per barrel, which is a 17% increase in price since the end of December 2011. When this is considered in conjunction with increasingly positive growth signs in many Latin American economies when compared to the U.S, the eurozone and Japan, I am of the view that it is time to consider further investments in Latin American commodities companies. Since hitting a 2012 high of $32.12 in February, Petrobras (PBR) has dropped by 16% to now be trading at around $27. This I believe represents a buying opportunity for risk tolerant investors and in this article I will explain why.

Petrobras is Brazil's largest company and an integrated global energy company that operates oil and natural gas exploration, production, refining, transportation and distribution businesses across the Americas, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Interestingly the company also operates a bio-fuel production business. With a market cap of $176 billion, it is the sixth largest publicly traded integrated oil and gas company.

Petrobras' financial results for both the fourth quarter and full year 2011 were disappointing. For the fourth quarter 2011 the company reported a 1% fall in revenues to $35 billion and a 20% fall in net income to $2.7 billion. In addition, for the same period its balance sheet marginally weakened, despite cash and cash equivalents rising 6% to $19.6 billion, because long-term debt increased by 8% to $74.7 billion. Petrobras also reported a disappointing full year 2011 result, with revenue of $134.8 billion and a net profit of $18 billion, which is a 5% drop from 2010's reported net profit.

There were also a number of other key positive take outs from Petrobras' 2011 report, including:

  • They have an increased reserve replacement ratio of 148%, which has lifted production life to 18 or 19 years.
  • Compared to 2010 the company has seen an increase of 9% in sales to the Brazilian market.
  • The company as an exploration success index of higher than 50%, which has contributed significantly to reserves in both oil and natural gas.
  • However, when we look at Petrobras' key performance indicators compared to its competitors the company appears to be lagging in almost all aspects as the table below shows.

    Company

    PEG

    Profit Margin

    ROE

    Debt to Equity Ratio

    Credit Rating

    Petrobras

    1.81

    14%

    10%

    0.44

    BBB

    Ecopetrol (EC)

    0.87

    24%

    32%

    0.20

    BBB-

    Chevron (CVX)

    1.33

    11%

    24%

    0.08

    AA

    BP (BP)

    1.38

    8%

    25%

    0.40

    A

    Exxon (XOM)

    1.47

    9.5%

    27%

    0.11

    AAA

    Based on the PEG ratio, Petrobras has worse growth prospects than its key competitors, while the other major Latin American oil and natural gas producer Ecopetrol has the best growth prospects. Although Petrobras has the second highest profit margin of the five companies it is still 10% lower than Ecopetrol's, but higher than Chevron's, BP's and Exxon's. The company is also delivering a particularly disappointing return on equity, which is the lowest of the four other companies and substantially lower than Ecopetrol's 32% return on equity which is the highest in the integrated oil and gas industry.

    However, I do like Petrobras conservative balance sheet with a debt to equity ratio of only 0.40, though this is still higher than Ecopetrol's, Exxon's and Chevron's but around the same as BPs. This conservative debt to equity ratio does bode well for the degree of investment risk undertaken when investing in Petrobras, as it means its operations are predominantly funded by equity rather than debt. This means either an increase in interest rates or a drop in revenue due to a declining oil price should have little effect on Petrobras, nor should the company experience any discomfort with regard to debt convents should its stock price drop substantially.

    Overall the low profit margin and return on equity does not bode well for Petrobras' future revenue and net income growth. However investors should remember that other than the PEG ratio the other indicators are lagging indicators and do not necessarily provide a leading prediction of the company's future performance. To get a good feel for the company's future performance I believe it is important to get a feel for its forward valuation and determine whether at current prices, combined with consensus future earnings, it is expensive in comparison to its competitors.

    With a current trading price of around $27 and a forecast consensus 2012 EPS of $3.10, Petrobras has a forward PE of 9. In addition, it has been forecast that Petrobras' 2012 revenue will rise by 12% to $151 billion. Ecopetrol, Petrobras' main South American competitor is trading at around $61 with consensus 2012 EPS of $4.60, giving it a forward PE of 13. It has also been forecast that Ecopetrol's revenue in 2012 will fall by 7% to $34.7 billion, all of which makes it expensive in comparison to Petrobras. When we look at U.S based oil and gas companies Petrobras continues to look cheap except when compared to Chevron. Chevron, which by market cap is the fifth largest company in the integrated oil and gas industry, has consensus 2012 EPS of $12.92, which with a current trading price of around $106, gives it a forward PE of 8. It is also forecast that Chevron will see a 21% increase in 2012 revenues to $286 billion.

    BP, which by market cap is the fourth largest company in the integrated oil and gas industry, has a consensus forecast 2012 EPS of $6.60, which with a current trading price of around $46, gives it a forward PE of 7. Analysts have also forecast a 1% drop in 2012 revenues to $372 billion. Finally there is the world's largest publicly traded oil company Exxon, which with a trading price of around $86 and forecast 2012 consensus EPS of $8.24 has a forward PE of 10. Analysts haave also forecast that Exxon's 2012 revenues will fall by 13% to $492 billion.

    Based on these forward valuations, Petrobras is cheap in comparison to Ecopetrol but equal to Chevron, BP and Exxon. Given theat BP is stilll dealing with fallout from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and Chevron is grappling with the recent oil spill and its fallout in Brazil, Petrobras a this time appears to be a superior investment based on these forward valuations.

    I also quite like Petrobras' dividend yield of around 4% (after foreign withholding tax is deducted from payments), which is a solid yield for an oil and gas producer and is similar to BP's 4% and higher than Ecopetrol's 3.5%, Chevron's 3% and Exxon's 2%. The total dividend yield is made up of two components a dividend payment and a distribution of interest on shareholders' equity (ISE), which is an alternative form of payment to shareholders. Essentially the ISE payments are not guaranteed and may vary from payment to payment and year to year.

    In 2011 Petrobras had a cost of goods sold (COGS) of $93 billion, which as a percentage of total revenue is 69%. This is inferior to Ecopetrol's 2011 COGS of $20.8 billion which is 56% of total revenue, but superior to BP's COGS of $318 billion, which is 84% of total revenue. It is also equivalent to Chevron's COGS of $163.5 billion, which is 69% of total revenue and Exxon's COGS of $304 billion, which is 70% of total revenue. Overall, Petrobras' is producing oil and gas at an equivalent cost to its competitors except Ecopetrol, which is a lower cost producer.

    Currently there is significant concern regarding the hard landing of the Chinese economy and the effects this will have on the global economy. A Chinese economic slowdown will cause global ripple effects and energy producers such as Petrobras will not be immune. China is the second largest economy in the world and its share of global GDP reached almost 15% on a PPP basis in 2011. The IMF estimates that the impact of Chinese demand on the world's largest economies has more than doubled over the past decade.

    The IMF has predicted that China's GDP growth rate for 2012 will be 9%, which is lower than the 9.4% average for the first 3 quarters of 2011, yet many economists are predicting that China's GDP growth for 2012 will be under 9%, with S&P predicting that Chinese GDP growth will be 8.2%, although they have described this as a soft landing. A deteriorating outlook for Chinese imports would send commodity prices into a tailspin and see a drop in global energy demand, all of which will have an impact on both basic materials producers such as Vale and BHP Billiton (BHP) as well as oil and gas producers like Petrobras.

    Despite the negative view on the Chinese economy and the impact that a Chinese economic slowdown will have there are some signs that in my view should see oil prices remain steady. These include signs of some progress in resolving Europe's long-running sovereign debt crisis and a tightening global supply picture in view of the geopolitical fallout over Iran's alleged nuclear ambitions have been keeping oil prices at elevated levels.

    Over recent months the price for Brent crude has risen by 13.77% since August 2011 to be trading at the time of writing at $125.26 per barrel as the table below shows.

    Table 1: Brent Crude per barrel

    Month

    Price

    Change

    Aug 2011

    110.09

    -

    Sep 2011

    110.88

    0.72 %

    Oct 2011

    109.48

    -1.26 %

    Nov 2011

    110.51

    0.94 %

    Dec 2011

    107.97

    -2.30 %

    Jan 2012

    111.00

    2.81 %

    Feb 2012

    119.71

    7.85 %

    Mar 2012*

    $125.26

    4.63%

    *As at the 25th March 2012

    Therefore, despite the impact that Chinese economic slowdown is perceived to have on the demand commodities, I believe that the price of oil will continue to rise. I have formed this opinion due to supply-side constraints caused by the ongoing political instability in the Middle East, continued tensions over Iran's nuclear ambitions and Chavez's ongoing reactionary and nationalistic political rhetoric.

    Over the long-term the price of oil will in my view continue to rise as energy is an essential part of any developed or developing economy and demand for energy around the world will continue to grow as developing countries mature and populations grow. Exxon recently published an outlook report that highlights this growth, projecting that global energy demand will be around 30% higher in year 2040 than it was in 2010.

    I also believe that when investing in a Brazilian company it is important that investors understand there is an additional degree of country risk that can and will impact on the performance of their investment. In summary while Brazil is one of the more stable Latin American countries it still has problems with corruption, lack of transparency with governmental, judicial and law enforcement bodies as well as economic and sovereign risk. Transparency International has rated Brazil as 73rd out of the 184 countries it analyzes on its Corruption Perception Index, which is well behind the U.S which was rated 24th. Brazil has also been given an OECD country risk rating of 3, on a scale of 0 to 7, with 0 being the least risky and 7 the most risky.

    However, Brazil has an S&P BBB international credit rating, which is above the minimum investment standard of BBB- and was upgraded by S&P in November 2011 from BBB- on the basis of "the current government's growing track record of prudent macroeconomic policies." Furthermore the international community has expressed a strong degree of confidence in Brazil through awarding it the right to host the 2014 FIFA World Cup and 2016 Olympics. This bodes not only well for the perception of reduce country risk but when coupled with Brazil's forecast 2012 GDP growth rate of 3.6%, increased domestic demand for basic materials and commodities such as oil and gas, all of which bodes well for Petrobras. If you wish to read further details on Brazil's level of country risk please refer to my article 'Vale a Solid Mining Investment for 2012'.

    A key plank in Petrobras' growth strategy that makes me particularly bullish on the company is its continuing focus on growing its resources and production base while pushing to reduce costs, which will place it in a strong position to capitalize on rising oil prices. At the time of writing Petrobras had made a number of key discoveries that added to its reserves including:

  • The discovery of a new high quality oil accumulation in ultra deep waters in the pre-salt of Santos Basin. The discovery was found during drilling of well known as Carcará, 232 km off the coast of São Paulo State, with sampling confirming the presence of oil of approximately 31º API, in reservoirs 5,750 meters deep.
  • The confirmation of good quality oil in the area referred to as Tupi Northeast, in the Santos Basin Pre-Salt.
  • Finally, I believe at its current trading price Petrobras is undervalued by the market as it has an earnings yield of 13%, which is more than five times the current risk free rate. When allowing for the accepted additional risk premium for investing in Brazil of 2% combined with the generally accepted equity risk premium of 4% on top of the risk free rate of return of 2%, Petrobras would be fairly valued with an earnings yield of around 8%. However, at 13% the company is still undervalued by the market at its current trading price.

    For all of these reasons I believe that at this time Petrobras represents a solid investment opportunity for risk tolerant investors. Despite some of its competitors having stronger performance indicators, I believe that Petrobras' is cheap based on both its forward valuation and earnings yield and that its stock price has already been punished by investors for its poor 2011 performance. I also believe that despite the slowdown in Chinese economy, oil prices will continue to rise through 2012 and that Petrobras is well positioned to capitalize on any increase in the oil price.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Pillsbury Owner General Mills Rolls in Dough

    Yoplait yogurt and cereal maker General Mills (GIS) is up $1.72, or 3%, today at $57.74, after the company this morning reported profit that beat estimates by a country mile for its fiscal fourth quarter ended in May, despite sales that were merely in line. This was not unexpected, as the company had pre-announced on June 7 it would beat prior forecasts.

    What was surprising was the $4.20 to $4.25 per share the company forecast for the May 2010 year; General Mills said earlier this month it was “comfortable” with analysts’ $4.10 estimate.

    Revenue rose 5%, year over year, to $3.6 billion, compared to $3.69 billion expected, while profit of $1.07 was well ahead of the consensus 81-cent estimate.

    The strong profit results and better-than-expected outlook confirm the positive view I penned in a “Barron’s Take” article back on June 8, and Barron’s magazine writer Neil Martin’s bullish piece on April 27, “Coming: A Cereal Thriller.” The stock could well be on its way to $62 given the positive outlook.

    Offshore Drillers See Swelling M&A Interest

    Now that it's 2007 all over again, and I am playing with oceanic oil drillers again, it's time to brush up on the subject.
  • [Sep 4, 2007: I'm Buying One Group Today - Deep Sea Oil Drillers]
  • [Sep 13, 2007: I found Goldman's Other Deep Sea Driller Pick - Atwood Oceanics]
  • [Oct 11, 2007: Could it Finally be Time for the Deep Sea Drillers?]
  • Ah those were the days, writing 8 posts a day to an audience of 40 people. ;)

    People often ask how do you know about so many stocks / sectors ... frankly, a lot of it is rehash. You do this long enough and you will have touched just about every sector and countless stocks. For example I spent the past 3 weeks reading up on JDS Uniphase (JDSU) and Finisar (FNSR). Folks, these are 1999 stocks; all I had to do was figure out what they were up to the past 11 years. ;) But I digress.

    Earnings in this sector have been poor, but as I stated yesterday - if the oil keeps rallying on HAL9000 buying fits, you must acquit. Of course if oil falls back in the days and weeks to come, ignore this entire entry. ;) I much prefer deep sea oil drilling versus shallow bodies of water since the contracts pay the most and last the longest period of time (i.e. stability) - not to mention Petrobras (PBR) has been busy locking up much of the world's supply [May 15, 2008: Petrobras Hoards the World's Deep Sea Oil Drillers] but there is limited selection of public companies in this group; certainly there is no pure play. When I first began the blog, major player GlobalSantaFe was an independent company (which I owned) but was gobbled up by Transocean (RIG), creating the sector's heavyweight ($28.5 Billion market cap).

    Tuesday, October 30, 2012

    Web Hosting-how To Find A Suitable Web Host For Your Needs?

    A web hosting service is a kind of web hosting service with the intention of providing with online techniques for storing information,photographs,video, or any content material accessible via the net to the individuals, organizations and users.

    The fundamental unit of a website is web page. These pages can be uploaded by means of ftp or a web interface. Many Internet service providers (ISP) provide this service for free to their subscribers. People can in addition get hold of web page hosting from services such as GeoCities where web page hosting is generally free of charge, advertisement sponsored, or low priced. Web page hosting is in general adequate only for personal home pages.

    The host may also provide a web interface for running the Web server and installing scripts in addition to other services like e mail. Some hosts dedicate themselves in certain software or services. For example, e commerce is one of those kinds of software or services. Larger companies to outsource network infrastructure to a hosting company frequently use them.

    Web hosting is over and over again provided as part of a general Internet access plan; there are many free and paid providers offering these services. A customer needs to weigh up the requirements of the application to decide what kind of hosting to use. Such considerations comprise database server software, scripting software, along with operating system.

    Internet hosting services can run on web servers. There are various sorts of web hosting services. Following are some hosting providers limited to the web. Free web hosting service: that is free, advertisement supported web hosting, and is inadequate when compared to paid hosting. Shared web hosting service: one’s site is to be shared on the identical server as a number of other sites. These are considerably constrained to what could be done.

    Dedicated internet hosting service: the consumer gets his or her own web server and the positive aspects is to have control over it. This implies root access for Linux/administrator access for home windows; nevertheless, the person does not own the server. Colocation internet hosting service: this service is similar to the devoted website hosting service, but the consumer owns the server; the internet hosting firm gives server space to the buyer.This is essentially the most effective and costly kind of web hosting.

    Learn more about web hosting. Stop by Author Name’s site where you can find out all about hosting and what it can do for you.

    How 5 Dividend Stocks Stack Up Against Their Toughest Competitors

    These five companies boast dividend increases and solid performance over the last ten years at least. In this article, I compare each company to an industry peer to determine if it is a better buy than its industry peer.

    Abbott Laboratories (ABT) – This major drug manufacturer is currently trading near $54 a share. Over the past 52 weeks, it has ranged from $45.07 to $55.61. Ten years ago, Abbott closed near $39. Its market capitalization is over $84 billion. Earnings per share are $2.90, and its price to earnings ratio is a little high at 18.69. Its dividend yield is 3.50% or $1.92, and its payout ratio is 64%. Its operating cash flow is $9.89 billion. Abbott has paid a dividend since 1926 and has increased its payment for the past 38 consecutive years. The company offers investors a direct stock purchase/dividend reinvestment program.

    Its competitor Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) is currently trading near $35 a share, which is closer to the higher end of its 52-week range of $29.47 to $37.65. Ten years ago, Merck was trading near $37, adjusted for dividends and splits. The company’s market capitalization is over $108 billion. Earnings per share are $1.37, and its price to earnings ratio is high at 26. Merck’s dividend yield is very attractive at 4.70% or $1.68. Its payout ratio is high at 110%, and its operating cash flow is $12.69 billion. Merck began paying a dividend in 1935. Management has not increased its payment since September 2004.

    Abbott is priced near its yearly high, and it is trading at a premium to its earnings. Merck is also trading at a premium. Abbott boasts a better track record of dividend increases and a more reasonable payout ratio. It is the safer bet for longer-term and income investors.

    Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO) – This discount retail chain is currently trading near $57 a share, which is at the higher end of its 52-week range of $41.31 to $60.53. It was trading near $24 ten years ago. The company’s market capitalization is almost $7 billion. Earnings per share are $3.12, and its price to earnings ratio is 18.28. Family Dollar Stores’ dividend yield is 1.30% or $0.72. Its payout ratio is 21%, and its operating cash flow is $528.06 million. The company’s dividend payment history dates to 1976. It has increased its payment for the past 14 consecutive years. It offers no direct stock purchase or dividend reinvestment plan.

    Its competitor Dollar Tree Inc. (DG) is currently trading near $41 a share, which is at the higher end of its 52-week range of $26.65 to $42.10. Its initial offering price in November 2009 was $21. The company’s market capitalization is over $14 billion. Earnings per share are $2.01, and its price to earnings ratio is 20.37. Dollar Tree does not pay a dividend.

    Family Dollar Stores may not pay a high dividend, but its track record is attractive. It can add diversity to income and long-term portfolios without adding a lot of risk or instability.

    Lowe’s Companies Inc. (LOW) – This home improvement retail chain is currently trading near $24 a share. It has ranged from $18.07 to $27.45 over the past 52 weeks. Ten years ago, it was trading near $21. The company’s market capitalization is close to $31 billion. Earnings per share are $1.37, and its price to earnings ratio is 17.92. Lowe’s dividend yield is 2.30% or $0.56. Its payout ratio is 43%, and its operating cash flow is $3.91 billion. Management has increased the company’s payout for the past 49 consecutive years. Payments date to 1961. The company offers a direct stock purchase/dividend reinvestment plan.

    Its competitor The Home Depot Inc. (HD) is currently trading near $39 a share, which is close to its 52-week high of $40.93. Its 52-week low was $28.13. Ten years ago, Home Depot was trading near $40. Home Depot’s market capitalization is over $60 billion. Earnings per share are $2.32, and price to earnings ratio is 16.87. Its dividend yield is 2.90% or $1.16. The company’s payout ratio is 43%, and it operating cash flow is $6.29 billion. Home Depot has paid a dividend since 1987. Management raised its quarterly payment in November to $0.29. Prior to that, it paid $0.25 a share for three quarters. It offers no direct purchase/dividend reinvestment plan.

    Home Depot may be a better known company with a larger market capitalization, but Lowe’s boasts a better track record. It offers longer term and income investors a nice dividend and the opportunity for growth.

    The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. (MHP) – This book publisher, which operates the credit rating service Standard & Poors, is currently trading near $42 a share, which is toward the higher end of its 52-week range of $26.95 to $40.77. Ten years ago, it was trading near $23 a share. Its market capitalization is over $12 billion. Earnings per share are $2.75, and its price to earnings ratio is 15.33. McGraw-Hill’s dividend yield is 2.40% or $1.00 a share, and its payout ratio is 35%. Its operating cash flow is $1.44 billion. McGraw-Hill has increased its dividend for the past 37 consecutive years. Payments date to 1937.

    McGraw-Hill’s industry peer Pearson, Plc. (PSO), which is based in London, is currently trading near $17 a share, which is toward the higher end of its 52-week range of $12.96 to $19.40. Ten years ago, it was trading near $7.50 a share. The company’s market capitalization is almost $14 billion. Earnings per share are $2.44, and its price to earnings ratio is 7.15. Pearson’s dividend yield is 2.5% or $0.44. Its payout ratio is 21%, and its operating cash flow is $1.54 billion. Pearson has paid a dividend since 1995. Most recently, it paid semiannual dividends of $0.229 in August and $0.419 in April. There is no direct stock purchase/dividend reinvestment plan.

    McGraw-Hill is an industry leader with a strong track record and commitment to shareholders. It is a stable investment in an industry with a steady outlook. I like this stock. It may not be an investor’s top performer, but it provides a foundation for income and long term portfolios.

    ExxonMobil Corporation (XOM) – This oil and gas major is currently trading near $80, which is toward the higher end of its 52-week range of $67.03 to $88.23. Ten years ago, it was trading near $30. The company’s market capitalization is over $380 billion. Earnings per share are $8.28, and its price to earnings ratio is 9.50. Its dividend yield is 2.30% or $1.88 a share, and its payout ratio is 22%. The company’s operating cash flow is $57.65. Exxon has increased its dividends every year for the past 14 consecutive years. It boasts an average dividend growth rate of 5.7% over the last 27 years. Its industry peer Chevron Corporation (CVX) is currently trading near $101 a share. It has ranged from $86.68 to $110.01 over the past 52 weeks. Ten years ago, Chevron was also trading near $30. This company boasts market capitalization of over $200 billion. Earnings per share are $13.50, and price to earnings ratio is 7.45. Chevron’s dividend yield is 3.10% or $3.24, and its payout ratio is 22%. The company’s operating cash flow is $40.28 billion. Chevron has paid dividends since 1912, and it has increased its payments every year for the past 19 consecutive years. If investors are in a position to choose one of these majors over the other, consider Chevron. Its dividend yield is higher, its price is a slightly better value, and its historic gain is better. If investors have the option of purchasing both to diversify, then do so, as both companies are solid performers with nice yields.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Empire Manufacturing Survey Takes a Step Back

    By Rom Badilla

    The New York Federal Reserve released the results of its monthly manufacturing survey, which suggests slowing activity for the region. The Empire Manufacturing survey, which covers 175 companies and provides an economic backdrop for the New York region, fell to a reading of 4.10 in September from 7.10 in the previous month. The fall in September disappointed market expectations as the average forecast was at 8.00 according to Bloomberg surveys. A reading above zero suggests manufacturing is expanding. After improving to a recent high of 31.86 in April 2010 from deep negative territory during the recession, the survey has fallen to single digits and has remained there for the past three months.

    Behind the headline numbers, the components are a little less grim. The New Orders component crossed back into expansionary territory by improving to 4.33 from -2.71 in August. Inventories declined slightly from 2.86 in the prior period to 1.49. Shipments, which fell off of a cliff to -11.50 in August, rebounded to -0.27 in September.

    On the inflation front, price pressures remain subdued which should keep Treasury yields relatively low in the short term. The Prices Paid component improved slightly to 22.39 from 20.00. While higher for the month and similar to the headline number, the Prices Paid component has fallen from recent highs of 44.74 set in the spring of 2010. Since then, the index has averaged 23.74 in the last four months. Prices Received rebounded as well back into expansionary territory from -2.86 to 1.49.

    Industrial production activity remains relatively low, which suggests more evidence that the economy is cooling. The Federal Reserve reported that Industrial Production in August increased by only 0.2% after the previous month’s number was revised downward by four-tenths of a percent to 0.6%. The August reading, which was in-line with economists’ surveys, reflected a slowdown in the production of motor vehicles and parts, which spiked in the prior month. In addition, Capacity Utilization, which provides an estimate of how much factory capacity is in use and may provide insight on inflationary pressures, continues to mire in below average territory. Capacity Utilization for August came in at 74.7, an increase of only a tenth of a percent from the prior month. Economists were expecting a reading of 75.0. Comparatively, Capacity Utilization averaged 80.4 percent in the three months prior to the onset of the recession.

    Given the recent backup in interest rates, mortgage applications declined according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Mortgage applications for the week ending September 10, declined 8.9% to an index level of 801.5. Since reaching a high of 893.8 at the tail end of August, the index has declined by more than 10%, which coincides with the run up in interest rates.

    Currently, market reaction, as evident by changes in the major benchmarks, is rather subdued given the economic data. The 10-Year is flat at 2.68% while the S&P 500 is higher by 0.2%. Interestingly, the 2-Year, which is more responsive to the overall macro economic picture, is trading at 0.47% , a decline of 3 basis points from the previous close and within a basis point of touching its recent lows set on August 24.

    Disclosure: None

    Avoid Market Chaos with Annuities

    Can I be honest with you?

    There’s no telling exactly how long our current “unsettled times” will last. I’m hoping they’ll pass quickly.

    In the midst of this chaos I realize that security looms every bit as important to your financial future as growth does.

    In order to ensure that you’re investments are well-protected, I encourage you to take a second look at an old investment tool that, after falling out of favor in the past few years, may be on the verge of a comeback.

    I’m talking about annuities.

    Whether you invest in fixed annuities or variable annuities, these investment tools can save on taxes, a key benefit if tax rates go up under a new presidency, while providing certain valuable guarantees.

    They’re an investment tool that I recommend to my Profitable Investing subscribers, which have helped to keep their portfolios thriving time and time again.

    How Do Annuities Work?

    On my Profitable Investingwebsite I like to provide a glossary which helps to explain various financing terms that I often use.

    It should come as no surprise that annuities are at the top of the list (it does start with an ‘A’ after all).

    So what is an annuity?

    Well, to quote myself, annuities are, “Financial products sold by insurance companies that are designed to accept and grow funds from an individual and then, upon annuitization, give back a stream of payments to the investor.” These investments can be both fixed and variable annuities depending on what works best for your investments.

    Sounds good right?

    My favorite part about investing in an annuity comes when…

    …interest, dividends and capital gains accumulate tax-free in the account until you begin withdrawals. Because a 10% penalty tax normally applies on withdrawals before age 59-1/2, I recommend that you leave money in a deferred annuity until they reach at least that age.

    When you start taking money out, the IRS assumes that the tax-deferred earnings come out first, to be taxed at “ordinary” (wage and salary) income rates. As an added bonus, the original principal you kicked in isn’t taxed.

    Two Ways to Profit

    There are two basic ways to pull cash out of a deferred annuity.

    Regardless of which route you choose you’ll walk away with a pocket full of gains. At the end of the day, you just can’t lose.

    1) Most annuities allow you to make withdrawals pretty much whenever, and in whatever amounts, you want, after the surrender charge (imposed by the insurance company) has lapsed. Assuming you’re past the age of 59-1/2, you won’t incur any tax penalty, either.

    2) At any age, you can “annuitize,” converting a deferred policy into a stream of monthly payments for life or a period of years.

    Bear in mind, though: Once you’ve elected to annuitize, you generally can’t reverse the decision. If the owner should pass away before annuitization has begun, his or her beneficiary receives the proceeds of the count. Your money will never be tied up in limbo, unless so desired. (For example, you may choose to have payments spread out over a number of years.)

    An Annuity Pick to Get You Started

    I’d like to share with you one of my top two fix-annuities picks: Hartford Life’s CRC Select, which behaves very much like a bank CD. But with no current tax on the interest, you can lock in your return for a stretch of five, six, seven, eight, nine or 10 years.

    With Hartford, surrender charges for early redemption start at a stiff 6% the first year, but step down to 2% by the sixth year. In addition, if you bail out before the agreed term is up, Hartford will adjust your principal up or down, depending on whether interest rates have fallen or risen.

    That’s a very good deal, if I do say so myself.

    Anxious to learn more about other good annuity investment deals? Then why keep yourself in the dark? As a Profitable Investing subscriber, the range from variable to fixed annuities will be just one type of investment that can not only revive your dying portfolio, but help it to thrive! Learn more about investment strategies that are making a comeback, as well as various other annuities that will help you turn your portfolio around, with a RISK-FREE trial to Profitable Investing. Click here for more details on this special offer.

    Waiting for Europe Surprises: Coming Week

    Let your imagination run wild. Pretty much anything could still happen in Europe, and the responses from investment managers run the gamut from very pessimistic to cautiously hopeful.

    Get alerts before Link and Cramer make every trade

    "Volatility will increase, not decrease," says Matthew Smith, chief investment officer at Smith Affiliated. "We'll have more fits where everything looks great until another round of debt payments in Europe ... There could be black swans coming any time."Paul Zemsky, multi-asset strategist with ING Direct, takes a more optimistic stance, at least for the short term: "I'm hoping we get some quiet out of Europe while austerity measures get implemented in Italy and Greece."Some well-respected economists warn that Europe is in for more turmoil. Nouriel Roubini wrote in the Financial Times this past week that Italy may need to exit the euro unless a lender of last resort can buy up sovereign debt before yields reach unsustainable levels. Roubini said there were multiple factors supporting Italy's exit from the eurozone and its reversion to the lira: the European Central Bank's reluctance to be lender of last resort, the limited capacity of the International Monetary Fund to bail out larger economies and the toll from Italy's austerity measures.Some economists are saying the European debt crisis has entered a new phase. The question posed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel on whether Greece wants to stay in the euro has opened a Pandora's box. Merkel's Christian Democratic Union could adopt a motion to allow euro nations to exit the currency. According to Bloomberg, some politicians are already working on such a plan ahead of an annual party congress next week. However, other officials have said that a small European Union would actually hurt Germany.Whatever may unfold, few seem fooled by the strong rebound in stocks seen on Thursday and Friday. The Dow rebounded by a total of 363 points since Wednesday's global stock rout. But volume on Veteran's Day was light, suggesting there may not be too much conviction in the rally. If Greece can surprise investors with a referendum blockade one week only to behave better the next, the country can surely hit the repeat button in the future. The same goes for Italy, which has seen some political stabilization but is still behind Greece in welcoming in a new government.

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    A small bright spot is that the leader who has taken over from former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi is an economist -- not a bad signal for investors tired of politicians who don't seem to understand the enormity of the risks ahead.

    Former European Union commissioner Mario Monti Sunday received the official mandate to form a new government and said he was getting to work immediately.

    Monti is seen as a political outsider and has a track record for being decisive. If he doesn't fall victim to Italy's fractious political environment, he may have more success than Berlusconi in guiding the country out of harm's way.On Saturday, Berlusconi resigned, paving the way for the transition government. On Sunday the former prime minister offered his approval of a Monti-led government but only for as long as it takes to push through economic reforms.The lower house of Italy's parliament Saturday passed a budget for 2012, aimed at economic growth. The bill was already approved by the Italian Senate on Friday. Many questions around the debt crisis remain: Is there another MF Global(MF) looming out there? Will Greece's newly sworn-in government successfully push ahead austerity measures? Will the interim government even last? And, will Italy's situation snowball into a bigger and scarier Greek crisis?While the market tracks the political dance in Italy and Greece, it risks losing focus on what's happening with Europe's emergency rescue fund. According to the Financial Times, the fund, which started out with 440 billion euros, now has only about 250 billion euros to lend out. Italy contributes 139 billion euros to the fund, so the rescue number would get cut to 110 billion euros in an Italian bailout. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund has about 300 billion euros ($400 billion), hardly enough for Italy to survive through 2012. In short, the lack of capitalization remains a Rubik's Cube.The U.S. Keeps Chugging AlongAn important deadline in Washington D.C. hasn't perturbed the markets yet and may still take a backseat to fretting over Europe next week. But this is one worth watching. Nov. 23 is when the "supercommittee" in the U.S. Congress aims to agree on a plan to reduce the nation's deficit by at least $1.2 trillion in the next decade. If the committee fails, automatic cuts from the earlier debt ceiling agreement kick in.

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    While some investment strategists say that a partial reduction of the deficit will pass the test of the financial markets, others warn that a small cut may lead to worries about another U.S. credit rating downgrade. If the market's reaction to Standard's & Poor's downgrade during the summer is any indication, investors could be in for another volatile period. On the upside, expectations are so low that any progress might receive a cheer from investors.

    "Zero progress would be viewed as a negative, but getting to an $800 billion cut agreement would be a positive," says Zemsky with ING Investment Management. "So far it's hard to get a play by play of what's happening because the committee has been very well disciplined about leaking details. However, as we approach the deadline, stocks could sell off a bit."

    If markets don't get tied up on Europe and Washington, next week may be a brief opportunity to focus on improving U.S. economic data. Macroeconomic Advisers' outlook for economic growth in the second half brightened slightly. The research firm revised upward its fourth-quarter gross domestic growth estimate to 2.9%, citing less drag from inventories at companies.Other positive data points from last week include a narrowing of the trade gap, a downward trend in jobless claims and easing import prices as disruptions from the aftermath of Japan's earthquake fade. On Friday, the consumer sentiment reading for November, the highest in five months, was the icing on the cake."We had a stealth recovery in the U.S. while the focus was on Europe," says Zemsky of ING. "I'm expecting that news will be more market-friendly next week."The S&P 500 neared its 200-day moving average of 1270 on Friday, closing at 1264. Zemsky of ING says that if the index crosses 1270 next week, it could work toward 1350 by year-end.A fresh round of economic data next week may lift expectations further for a pickup in the economic recovery. Initial claims are expected to come in at 395,000 for the first week of November, up from 390,000 in the previous week.

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    On Tuesday, a regional read on manufacturing in the New York region is expected at -2 for November, an improvement from -8.48 in October.

    Prices that producers faced in October probably increased, with the core reading inching up 0.1%, extending a 0.2% price increase in the prior month. The overall reading, which takes into account food and energy costs, is expected to slip 0.1%, reversing a 0.2% uptick in September.

    Other key reports next week include industrial production and the housing market index on Wednesday, a business survey from the Philadelphia Fed on Thursday, and the leading indicators report on Friday. >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Chao Deng.>To follow the writer on Twitter, go to: @chao_deng >To submit a news tip, send an email to: tips@thestreet.com.

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    5 Earnings Stocks to Squeeze the Bears

    News events have the power to create big volatility in stocks, and one event that can move them substantially higher or lower is an earnings release. Combine a bullish earnings report with a stock that's heavily shorted, and you have the fuel that can ignite a large short squeeze.

    Short-sellers hate being caught short a stock that announces bullish earnings and forward guidance. When this happens, we often see a tradable short squeeze develop as the bears rush to cover their positions and avoid huge losses. Even the most skilled short-sellers know that it's never a great idea to stay short once an earnings even sparks a big short-covering rally.l

    See if (ISCA) is in our portfolio

    This is precisely why I search the market for heavily shorted stocks that are about to report earnings. You only need to find a couple of these candidates in a year to help enhance your portfolio returns; the gains become so outsized in such a short timeframe that your profits add up quickly.That said, let's not forget that stocks are heavily shorted for a reason, so you have to use trading discipline and sound money management when playing earnings short-squeeze candidates. It's important that you don't go betting the farm on these plays and that you manage your risk accordingly. Sometimes the best play is to wait for the stock to break out following the report before you jump in to profit from off a short squeeze. When you do this, you're letting the trend emerge after the market has digested all of the news. Of course, sometimes a stock will be in such high demand that you risk missing a lot of the move. That's why it can be worth betting prior to the report -- but only if you have a very strong conviction that the stock is going to rip higher.Here's a look at a number of stocks that could experience big short squeezes when they report earnings this week.

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    International Speedway Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

    My first earnings short-squeeze play is International Speedway(ISCA), which is set to report its results on Thursday before the market open. International Speedway owns motorsports entertainment facilities and is a promoter of motorsports-themed entertainment activities in the U.S. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect the company to report revenue of $156.47 million on earnings of 31 cents per share.

    International Speedway has been inconsistent when it comes to beating Wall Street estimates this year. Profits have trended higher year over year by an average of 12.7% over the past five quarters, but revenue has fallen for the past three quarters. The stock is acting very weak in front of the quarter; shares recently hit a new 52-week low. The current short interest as a percentage of the float for International Speedway stands at 7%. That means that out of the 23.69 million shares in the tradable float, 1.87 million are sold short by the bears. It's worth pointing out that the bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 7.7%, or by about 134,700 shares. >>5 Breakout Stocks to Recoup September LossesFrom a technical standpoint, this stock is trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock dropped big from its July high of $30.90 to a recent low of $21.27 a share, but it has now started to trade sideways between $25.50 and $21.39 a share. A move out of this sideways pattern will determine the next trend for the stock. I would look to buy this stock after its report if it can manage to trade back above its 50-day moving average of $24.05 and then above resistance at $25.50 a share on strong volume. Look for volume that's tracking in close to or above its three-month average action of 179,300 shares. If those levels are taken out, then look for a run back toward its 200-day of $27.59. I would get short International Speedway after earnings only if it drops below that big support zone at $21.39 a share on heavy volume. A loss of that support zone should open up the door for some big selling. Target a drop back toward $18 to $17 a share if the bears take hold of this stock post-earnings. >>5 Sentiment Indicators to Keep an Eye On

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    AngioDynamics Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

    Another stock with the potential to see an earnings short squeeze is AngioDynamics(ANGO), which is set to release results on Thursday after the market close. This company designs, develops, manufactures and markets a line of therapeutic and diagnostic devices that enable interventional physicians to treat peripheral vascular disease, tumors and other non-coronary diseases. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect AngioDynamics to report revenue of $53.86 million on earnings of 8 cents per share.

    This stock has been beaten down pretty good in front of the quarter, with shares dropping from a May high of $16.56 a share to a recent low of $12.60 a share. A solid earnings report and bullish guidance could set off a short squeeze for this stock. >>3 Beaten-Down Giants Ready to ReboundThe current short interest as a percentage of the float for AngioDynamics is worth noting at 5.3%. That means that out of the 24.79 million shares in the tradable float, 1.31 million are sold short by the bears. The short-sellers have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 5.3%, or about 65,300 shares. If the bears are caught pressing their bets in front of the quarter, and we get bullish news, then they could be forced to cover some of those bets and buy the stock back. From a technical standpoint, this stock is currently trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. That said, the stock has been stuck in a sideways trading pattern since August, between $12.60 and $14.60 a share. A move outside of that pattern will set this stock up for its next trend. I would be a buyer of this stock after they report earnings if it holds above $12.60 and you see strength enter the name. I would then add to any long position once it takes out $14.60 to its 200-day of $15.09 with volume. Look for volume that's tracking in close to or greater than its three-month average volume of 145,300 shares. Target a rise towards $16 a share or possibly higher if the bulls can really get a solid short squeeze going. >>Does Technical Trading Really Work?I would only short this stock after they report if it drops below that key support area at $12.60 a share on heavy volume. Target a drop back towards $11 to $10 a share if the bears gain full control of this name post-earnings.

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    Helen of Troy Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

    Helen of Troy(HELE), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open, is a global designer, developer, importer and distributor of an expanding portfolio of brand-name consumer products. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Helen of Troy to report revenue of $288.80 million on earnings of 87 cents per share.

    This company missed estimates last quarter after topping estimates in the prior two quarters. Helen of Troy's profits have trended higher year over year by an average of 34.3% over the past five quarters. Revenue has trended higher for three straight quarters. Just today, Wedbush upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform based off the recent share price drop and stabilization of input costs. Wedbush has a $26 price target on the stock. The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Helen of Troy sits at 4.5%. That means that out of the 28.49 million shares in the tradable float, 1.28 million are sold short by the bears. The short-sellers have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 6.1%, or about 73,900 shares. >>9 Earnings Reports to Watch Next WeekFrom a technical standpoint, this stock is trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has been beaten down big since hitting its July high of $36.75, with shares currently changing hands at around $26. The stock just bounced off some previous support at $23.80, which is very close to an area shares found buying interest back in November and December of 2010. If you want to jump in this stock for an earnings short-squeeze play, I would wait until after its report and buy once it trades above $26.50 a share on solid volume. Look for volume that's tracking in close to or above its three-month average action of 206,300 shares. I would then add to any long position once the stock takes out its 200-day moving average of $29.90 a share with volume. Target a run back towards $32 or possibly even higher if the bulls gain control of this stock post-earnings. Helen of Troy, one of TheStreet Ratings' Top-Rated Household Durable Goods Stocks, was also featured in "5 Stocks to Trade Ahead of Earnings."

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    IDT Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

    One earnings short-squeeze trade in the communications services sector is IDT(IDT), which is set to release numbers on Thursday after the market close. This is a multinational holding company with operations primarily in the telecommunications and energy industries. Its products include mattresses and mattress foundations. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect IDT to report revenue of $398.97 million on earnings of 24 cents per share.

    This is another name that's been beaten down big in front of the quarter, since shares have dropped from July highs of $28 a share to its current price of around $19 a share. This large drop in the stock could be setting up shares for a sharp rebound if the bulls get the news they're looking for. >>3 Beaten-Down Small-Cap Growth StocksThe current short interest as a percentage of the float for IDT is 4.5%. That means that out of 15.5 million shares in the tradable float, 664,059 are sold short by the bears. The bears have also been increasing their bets from the last reporting period by 10.4%, or about 62,500 shares. From a technical standpoint, the stock is currently trading well below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. That said, the stock has moved into a sideways trading pattern since August with shares trading between $22 and $18.30 a share. Once the stock breaks out or below this pattern, then we will know the next trend that shares are likely to embark on. If you're bullish on this stock, I would be a buyer after it reports earnings if the stock holds above that major support zone around $18.38 a share. If that price level holds, I would be a buyer once you see strength in the stock post-earnings. I would add to any long position once this stock takes out $22 a share with heavy volume. Look for volume that's tracking in close to or above its three-month average action of 165,500 shares. >>3 Key Tools for the Contrarian InvestorI would only get short this name after earnings if the stock drops below $18.38 on heavy volume. A move below that level should set this stock up for a move back towards $15 to $14 a share or possibly even lower if the bears hammer this lower post-earnings.

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    Robbins & Myers Content on this page requires a newer version of Adobe Flash Player.

    One final earnings short-squeeze trade is Robbins & Myers(RBN), which is set to release numbers on Thursday before the market open. This is a supplier of engineered equipment and systems for critical applications in global energy, industrial, chemical and pharmaceutical markets. Wall Street analysts, on average, expect Robbins & Myers to report revenue of $254.90 billion on earnings of 75 cents per share.

    During the last quarter, the company reported earnings of 53 cents per share, which matched Wall Street estimates of 53 cents. Quarterly revenue for last quarter jumped 98.1% on a year-over-year basis. If Robbins & Myers can top 75 cents for this quarter and guide higher, then we could see this stock experience a sharp rally. The current short interest as a percentage of the float for Robbins & Myers is worth mention at 5.3%. That means that out of the 40.01 million shares in the tradable float, 2.12 million are sold short by the bears. This isn't a huge short interest, but it's more than enough to kickoff a short-covering rally if the bulls hear what they're looking for. From a technical standpoint, the stock is currently trading substantially below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which is bearish. This stock has plunged from its July high of $55.63 to its current price of just over $32 a share. That sharp drop has created an oversold condition since the relative strength index reading for this stock is 31. Oversold can always get more oversold, but a reading of 30 or lower is often an area where stocks bounce higher from. >>5 Stocks With Relative Strength Poised to Break OutI would look to be a buyer of this stock after it releases its results if the stock can break out above $34.33 a share on big volume. Look for volume that's tracking in close to or greater than its three-month average action of 504,000 shares. That $34.33 area was a previous support zone that the stock dropped below just recently. If we can get back above that level, then look for this stock make a run at $39.50 or possibly higher if the bulls gain control of the stock post-earnings. To see more potential earnings short squeeze candidates, including Constellation Brands(STZ), DragonWave(DRWI) and Village Super Market(VLGEA), check out the Earnings Short Squeeze Plays portfolio on Stockpickr. Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

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    TD Ameritrade Offers 150 Free CE Courses

    TD Ameritrade announced Thursday that it would offer more than 150 free continuing education courses to advisors who custody with TD Ameritrade.

    The credits are offered through the College for Financial Planning and courses can be completed through TD Ameritrade Institutional’s Advisor Education portal.

    Free CE credits and discounted tuition is available from The College for professional designation programs including:

    • Accredited Asset Management Specialist (AAMS)
    • Accredited Domestic Partnership Advisor (ADPA)
    • Accredited Portfolio Management Advisor (APMA)
    • Accredited Wealth Management Advisor (AWMA)
    • CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER or CFP certification
    • Chartered Mutual Fund Counselor (CMFC)
    • Chartered Retirement Plans Specialist (CRPS)

    “Advisors need continued education to increase their industry knowledge and potentially add value for their clients. However, many advisors have multiple designations and need an efficient way to access courses,” Tess Kristensen, senior manager of advisor education for TD Ameritrade Institutional, said in a press release. “By bringing comprehensive tools and content all together in one place, TD Ameritrade Institutional demonstrates a commitment to helping advisors save time and get access to quality industry education.”

    (We can't help but point out that AdvisorOne offers free CE credits from the CFP Board through our CE center.)

    Monday, October 29, 2012

    Apple Q1 Earnings Preview: Strong iPhone Sales, But iPad Sales Could Be Weak

    Apple Inc. (AAPL) is due to report earnings on January 24th. The Street expects the company to earn $9.89 per share on $38.31 billion in revenue. Last quarter, Apple reported weaker than expected iPhone sales due to the highly anticipated "iPhone 5". While iPhone sales are expected to be strong due to the introduction of iPhone 4S and lower price of iPhone 3GS, iPad sales could be weaker than expected due to strong sales numbers of Amazon's Kindle Fire, and the anticipation of the iPad 3, which is expected to be available this spring.

    Details

    In 4Q11 Apple reported:

    • Revenue: $28.27 billion
    • Gross margin: 40.3%
    • EPS: $7.05
    • Mac shipment: 4.89 million, +26% y/y due to strong Mac notebook sales. I note that Mac shipment was especially strong compared to IDC's global PC shipment which was only 3.6%
    • iPad shipment: 11.12 million, +166% y/y due to strong sales from Asia (+139% y/y), specifically sales from China was up 270% y/y
    • iPhone shipment: 17.07 million, +21% y/y. While iPhone sale was strong, it came in weaker than expected due to anticipation of iPhone 4S
    • iPod shipment: 6.62 million, -27% y/y. Decline in iPod shipment is expected to continue as users substitute traditional MP3 players with their smart phones

    Expect strong iPhone sales

    The iPhone shipment for 4Q11 came in below the consensus of 20 million due to the widespread anticipation of the new iPhone model. That said, iPhone sales are expected to pick up this quarter due to strong demand and increased carrier distribution.

    The demand for iPhone will be strong, as indicated by the opening weekend launch when Apple sold 4 million units of the new iPhone 4S. In addition, the lower pricing point on the iPhone 4 and the iPhone 3GS will likely attract Android and Blackberry users to switch. Going forward, iPhone 3GS, which is offered for free at certain carriers with long-term contract, will likely be the entry level smart phone that can negatively impact the demand for low-end BlackBerry and Android models.

    Increased carrier distribution will also provide an upside for iPhone sales this quarter. At the end of 4Q11, Apple had 230 carriers in 105 countries that carry the iPhone model but only 7 countries carried the iPhone 4S model. The company was expected to expand iPhone 4S's geographic reach to 22 countries by the end of October, which will likely maintain iPhone's strong sales momentum for this upcoming quarter.

    But iPad sales could be weak

    Like the anticipation involving the "iPhone 5" that negatively impacted iPhone sales, iPad sales for this upcoming quarter could experience a slight weakness due to the anticipation of the iPad 3, which is expected to be released by March or April. The iPad 3 is expected to feature increased speed with a quad-core processor, higher resolution display, 1 GB memory and Siri, the voice-activated personal assistant that is featured in the new iOS. I believe that the speculation from the press and other sources will put a pause on consumer purchases of iPad 2, despite the wide-spread optimism over iPad 2 sales during the holiday.

    Finally, Amazon (AMZN) likely sold 4.5 to 6 million Kindle Fire tablets over the holidays, which could further hurt iPad 2 demand for the quarter.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Survival Blueprint for Newspapers

    Peel back the layers of contentious bankruptcy, scandalous management and Sam Zell’s 2007 leveraged buyout gone bad at the Tribune Co. and there is an intriguing story about media survival and the larger reinvention beginning to resonate within the beleaguered publishing industry.

    That the Tribune Co. now refers to its self as a media and business services company that happens to publish a few newspapers underscores its shift from print to digital and from conventional news headlines to activist hyper local journalism that positions it for a new owner in 2011.

    The new guard could include former Walt Disney (DIS) chairman CEO Michael Eisner, who has been buying the private media company’s debt, perhaps to endear himself to angry creditors and be able to step in when Zell walks away post-bankruptcy. “I don’t envision having any role going forward,” Zell said recently. “I'll turn it over to whoever the creditors decide they want to run it.”

    Uncertainty was crippling when all of Tribune Co.’s businesses, including the flagship Chicago Tribune, cut about 30 percent cost from their budgets and some 4,200 jobs companywide. In the past 19 months, there have been no layoffs at the Chicago Tribune Media Group (CTMG), which has increased staff 12 percent, adding nearly 60 jobs to its investigative units, and its universal digital media on demand newsroom.

    The ubiquitous newsroom manages at least 25 percent of the feature news for the Tribune Co.’s seven other cash flow positive newspapers. The 75 percent of the editing and production mechanics CTMG does for Tribune’s Newport Daily News is the shape of things to come.

    Tribune will use its new stature as an inaugural contributing member with Thomson Reuters’ new Reuters America, an AP rival, to market its ready-made news pages and modules. The modules represent a substantial new revenue source for Tribune and a way for newspaper clients to minimize news production costs and dependence upon the pricey AP.

    The Media on Demand module production already saves about $10 million in costs annually across the newspaper group. It’s just one example of how CTMG is executing on not just a survival, but a growth plan that is making it less reliant on its core newspapers and traditional advertising revenues. As a result, the Tribune Co. is quietly providing its beleaguered publishing brethren -- from The New York Times Co. and The Washington Post Co. to News Corp.-- a template for digital profitability that requires considerable reinvention.

    About 40 percent of the CTMG’s overall revenues are generated by digital, non-print products and services. Although Chicago Tribune readership has declined, the media group’s overall cross-platform Chicago area audience reach has increased to nearly 70 percent from the implementation of more diversified digital products, such as breaking news Web sites for sports and business, foreign language papers like Spanish-speaking Vivelo Hoy and youth skewing papers such as The Redeye.

    As a result, CTMG was expected to have cash flow in excess of $100 million in 2010. The Tribune Co.’s consolidated operating cash flow is projected to be $617 million in 2010, up from $492 million last year, according to industry experts. The $120 million consolidated increase is largely attributed to the CTMG’s dramatic reorganization.

    “The fact that most people don’t know how profitable we are, and about the growth that is occurring in our audience, and about our innovation and diversification at the company has been lost in some of the noise,” CTMG publisher Tony Hunter said, referring to the Tribune’s high profile on bankruptcy and management scandal. “Diversification of our media group is why we’re still thriving,” Hunter said.

    CTMG's total operating cash flow will once again exceed $100 million this year as a result of developing new revenue streams rather than as a result of hefty cost reductions or a gradual improvement in advertising. The Tribune and the CTMG will continue to move toward a 50/50 split of revenue from print and non-print sources that will increasingly involve live events featuring the company’s editorial contributors, premium specialized content, and mobile and online transactions. They prevail irrespective of declining iPad and digital magazine sales, and the loss of consumer data and revenues to hardware makers such as Apple. They are banking on a sizable number of consumers willing to pay for content, as recently indicated by the Pew Internet Project.

    Overall, they are hammering out a sustainable new business model for imploding big city newspapers.

    The Chicago Tribune Media Group in particular — admittedly still stuck in “Zell hell” — is finding salvation in daily doses of roll up your sleeves investigative journalism and community activism on steroids. The Dec. 9, 2009, “epiphany,” was when the company filed for bankruptcy and Chicago Tribune’s front page was an exclusive about then Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich allegedly seeking to “sell” the U.S. senate seat vacated by President-elect Barack Obama. Every day since, the Chicago Tribune’s watchdog journalism has exposed the pay-to-play political culture of Illinois.

    "A near-death experience can really motivate you,” says Gerould Kern, whose 27-month tenure as Chicago Tribune editor (“but who’s counting,” he quips) has been devoted to calling out political corruption in a state where two governors are behind bars and a third is appealing his conviction. “The two Dec. 9, 2009, events galvanized us,” Kern said.

    Even as The Chicago Tribune’s daily investigations have uncovered state college admission-, nursing home-, pension fund- and other government fraud, the company’s reputation was “shamefully” damaged by the sexist, bawdry bad boy behavior of recently resigned Zell-appointed CEO Randy Michaels, Kern said. He penned one of his now famous open letters to readers about the scandal. In an anticipated move last month, long-time Zell crony Gerry Spector resigned as Tribune COO.

    A four-man committee now overseeing Tribune Co. last month issued an updated code of conduct to all employees banning the controversial “frat boy” behavior that prevailed since Zell’s highly leveraged buyout of the Tribune Co. The committee includes Hunter, Los Angeles Times publisher Eddie Hartenstein (former DirecTV CEO) and two Zell reorganization appointees.

    Potential CEO candidates besides Hunter and Hartenstein included Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) CEO Mel Karmazin, Comcast (CMCSA) COO Jeff Snell, former CBS (CBS) CFO Freed Reynolds, and former News Corp. (NWSA) COO Peter Chernin, according to press speculation. A new CEO-COO team could be announced in conjunction with the Tribune Co.’s emergence from bankruptcy early in 2011 and a possible decision to go public again under new owners.

    Despite being a 19-year Tribune veteran, Kern has been a lightning rod for the public pain and angst that has scared the company’s besieged legions. Critics complain Kern stood up to Michael’s shenanigans only after the scathing New York Times story about his frat house reign that forced his departure. Kern also was caught in the cross hairs of The Chicago Headline Club’s public outrage over the culture of offensiveness “that has marginalized women” under Michaels and other Zell cronies. Chicago Tribune staffers in particular say they resent the Times’ story and the Headline Club painting the entire company with the same broad brush.

    “The episode with Randy Michaels took its toll … all we want to do is the journalism we came here to create,” says Kern, sounding like his stoic heroes (Churchill, Truman and FDR) whose shelved biographies flank his office desk along with a framed copy of the infamous Tribune front page that prematurely and erroneously declared “Dewy Defeats Truman.” A list of the new guiding principles of the Tribune’s bold digital initiatives is posted in the glass wall of his office, facing out for all in the newsroom to see.

    The performance of the company as a whole, once you strip away the Randy Michaels saga, “has smartly improved its financial and future position,” Kern said in a recent interview. “The worst time came in April 2009 “when we had to stop the bleeding.”

    After spending the previous two years in a corporate Tribune job focused on creating new business models, Kern was tasked to “zero base the newsroom” and reallocate resources over six weeks. He accomplished the reorganization in one day. “Analyzing the economics of the news business, I recognized that there was no way the traditional economic model would work. That meant we had to make do with fewer dollars and fewer people, and that we had to use them differently,” he said.

    “No one wanted to cut jobs, but I knew we would be forced to, so it became an issue of what was the smartest way to do things and to refocus it with a new blueprint,” Kern said.

    When Tribune market studies showed readers were emotionally unattached to the newspaper, regarding it more as “a utility company,” Kern decided to rebrand the Tribune as a local crusader. “When you pick it up, you know where you are, you know who it is written for and you know what the mission is,” he said.

    The Chicago Tribune Media Group’s digital audience is approaching 2 million (of a more than 5 million audience base). Sequential improvement in print advertising revenues is eclipsed by 30 percent increases in digital revenues over last year.

    Hunter says the biggest breakthrough has been “the supply chain mentality to news and information across the enterprise represented by The Chicago Tribune’s Media On Demand news module production. The recently launched Chicagoshopping.com foray into online transactions, thriving direct mail and the release of targeted verticals (sources say books and groceries are next up) underscore “there is not one big idea — but many ideas — to reinvent media,” Hunter said.

    The company also has fortified its subscription-based entertainment and information database services. Tribune Media Services recently acquired CastTV, a leading provider in video search and indexing.

    Perhaps the most unique approach the company is taking is revenue-generating live events.

    Tribune’s massive Freedom Center production center in downtown Chicago is suddenly playing host to music concerts and Second City satiric news reviews, and had a $300,000 deal to with a holiday Broadway production of Peter Pan.

    CTMG also is luring advertisers into the social media world with its new 435 digital agency, offering self-service or supported online networking strategy and monitoring, Web site design and development, search engine optimization, and ad placement.

    Tribune has been startled by its own digital catch-up. The Chicago Tribune brand continues to be a powerful draw with its new breakingsports.com, breakingbusiness.com and Chicagonow.com blog network, each generating 15 to 17 million online page views that didn’t exist 18 months ago. “Using our online media as a way to gather target audiences and funnel them toward more transactional channels like Chicagoshopping.com and new mobile applications on devices like the iPad is a way to bring the cable television business model to print,” Kern said.

    Even after it emerges from bankruptcy and passes to new owners in 2011, there is an outside chance the Tribune Co. could eventually face an asset split to appease contentious creditors who have pummeled the company, some of its former key executives and Zell with lawsuits. Although the bankruptcy proceedings have cost more than $135 million so far, the presiding judge recently approved $40 million in bonuses to top Tribune executives. Zell brought only $315 million in financing to his $8.5 billion acquisition of Tribune Co., ultimately smothering the company with $13 billion in debt.

    “I am very optimistic about the future. In the midst of chaos and crisis, there is huge opportunity,” says Kern. “I still believe the best ideas win. Ultimately, owners come and owners go, but the institution — and what it does and what it stands for — is something that lasts,” he said. “People in the journalism world believe in the right things, but they have not been willing to be entrepreneurial, to change, to experiment and try new things. Remaining in the preservation mode hurt all of us.”

    This story has been updated since it was originally published last month in OMMA Magazine.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Has GenCorp Made You Any Real Money?

    Although business headlines still tout earnings numbers, many investors have moved past net earnings as a measure of a company's economic output. That's because earnings are very often less trustworthy than cash flow, since earnings are more open to manipulation based on dubious judgment calls.

    Earnings' unreliability is one of the reasons Foolish investors often flip straight past the income statement to check the cash flow statement. In general, by taking a close look at the cash moving in and out of the business, you can better understand whether the last batch of earnings brought money into the company, or merely disguised a cash gusher with a pretty headline.

    Calling all cash flows
    When you are trying to buy the market's best stocks, it's worth checking up on your companies' free cash flow once a quarter or so, to see whether it bears any relationship to the net income in the headlines. That's what we do with this series. Today, we're checking in on GenCorp (NYSE: GY  ) , whose recent revenue and earnings are plotted below.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. FCF = free cash flow. FY = fiscal year. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    Over the past 12 months, GenCorp generated $68.2 million cash while it booked net income of $5.8 million. That means it turned 7.3% of its revenue into FCF. That sounds OK.

    All cash is not equal
    Unfortunately, the cash flow statement isn't immune from nonsense, either. That's why it pays to take a close look at the components of cash flow from operations, to make sure that the cash flows are of high quality. What does that mean? To me, it means they need to be real and replicable in the upcoming quarters, rather than being offset by continual cash outflows that don't appear on the income statement (such as major capital expenditures).

    For instance, cash flow based on cash net income and adjustments for non-cash income-statement expenses (like depreciation) is generally favorable. An increase in cash flow based on stiffing your suppliers (by increasing accounts payable for the short term) or shortchanging Uncle Sam on taxes will come back to bite investors later. The same goes for decreasing accounts receivable; this is good to see, but it's ordinary in recessionary times, and you can only increase collections so much. Finally, adding stock-based compensation expense back to cash flows is questionable when a company hands out a lot of equity to employees and uses cash in later periods to buy back those shares.

    So how does the cash flow at GenCorp look? Take a peek at the chart below, which flags questionable cash flow sources with a red bar.

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. Dollar values in millions. TTM = trailing 12 months.

    When I say "questionable cash flow sources," I mean items such as changes in taxes payable, tax benefits from stock options, and asset sales, among others. That's not to say that companies booking these as sources of cash flow are weak, or are engaging in any sort of wrongdoing, or that everything that comes up questionable in my graph is automatically bad news. But whenever a company is getting more than, say, 10% of its cash from operations from these dubious sources, investors ought to make sure to refer to the filings and dig in.

    With questionable cash flows amounting to only -0.2% of operating cash flow, GenCorp's cash flows look clean. Within the questionable cash flow figure plotted in the TTM period above, changes in taxes payable provided the biggest boost, at 4.4% of cash flow from operations. Overall, the biggest drag on FCF came from capital expenditures, which consumed 25.8% of cash from operations.

    A Foolish final thought
    Most investors don't keep tabs on their companies' cash flow. I think that's a mistake. If you take the time to read past the headlines and crack a filing now and then, you're in a much better position to spot potential trouble early. Better yet, you'll improve your odds of finding the underappreciated home-run stocks that provide the market's best returns.

    We can help you keep tabs on your companies with My Watchlist, our free, personalized stock tracking service.

    • Add GenCorp to My Watchlist.

    Check This to Find Out Whether Xyratex Is Going to Bomb

    There's no foolproof way to know the future for Xyratex (Nasdaq: XRTX  ) or any other company. However, certain clues may help you see potential stumbles before they happen -- and before your stock craters as a result.

    A cloudy crystal ball
    In this series, we use accounts receivable and days sales outstanding to judge a company's current health and future prospects. It's an important step in separating the pretenders from the market's best stocks. Alone, AR -- the amount of money owed the company -- and DSO -- the number of days' worth of sales owed to the company -- don't tell you much. However, by considering the trends in AR and DSO, you can sometimes get a window onto the future.

    Sometimes, problems with AR or DSO simply indicate a change in the business (like an acquisition), or lax collections. However, AR that grows more quickly than revenue, or ballooning DSO, can also suggest a desperate company that's trying to boost sales by giving its customers overly generous payment terms. Alternately, it can indicate that the company sprinted to book a load of sales at the end of the quarter, like used-car dealers on the 29th of the month. (Sometimes, companies do both.)

    Why might an upstanding firm like Xyratex do this? For the same reason any other company might: to make the numbers. Investors don't like revenue shortfalls, and employees don't like reporting them to their superiors.

    Is Xyratex sending any potential warning signs? Take a look at the chart below, which plots revenue growth against AR growth, and DSO:

    Source: S&P Capital IQ. Data is current as of last fully reported fiscal quarter. FQ = fiscal quarter.

    The standard way to calculate DSO uses average accounts receivable. I prefer to look at end-of-quarter receivables, but I've plotted both above.

    Watching the trends
    When that red line (AR growth) crosses above the green line (revenue growth), I know I need to consult the filings. Similarly, a spike in the blue bars indicates a trend worth worrying about. Xyratex's latest average DSO stands at 51.2 days, and the end-of-quarter figure is 47.8 days. Differences in business models can generate variations in DSO, and business needs can require occasional fluctuations, but all things being equal, I like to see this figure stay steady. So, let's get back to our original question: Based on DSO and sales, does Xyratex look like it might miss its numbers in the next quarter or two?

    The numbers don't paint a clear picture. For the last fully reported fiscal quarter, Xyratex's year-over-year revenue shrank 23.8%, and its AR dropped 18.3%. That looks OK. End-of-quarter DSO increased 7.3% over the prior-year quarter. It was up 2.3% versus the prior quarter. Still, I'm no fortuneteller, and these are just numbers. Investors putting their money on the line always need to dig into the filings for the root causes and draw their own conclusions.

    What now?
    I use this kind of analysis to figure out which investments I need to watch more closely as I hunt the market's best returns. However, some investors actively seek out companies on the wrong side of AR trends in order to sell them short, profiting when they eventually fall. Which way would you play this one? Let us know in the comments below, or keep up with the stocks mentioned in this article by tracking them in our free watchlist service, My Watchlist.

    • Add Xyratex to My Watchlist.