Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Apple Touts Jobs It Creates, Taxes It Pays

Ahead of Tim Cook's congressional testimony tomorrow about Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL  ) tax policies, the company has released a 17-page statement (link opens PDF) outlining its tax policy.

In the statement outlining the testimony it will give, the company points out that it employs tens of thousands of Americans, makes products that benefit tens of millions of Americans, and pays billions of dollars in corporate income and payroll taxes to the Treasury each year.

The company also "welcomes an objective examination" of the U.S. corporate tax system, which Apple believes "has not kept pace with" the rapidly evolving technologies and the economy. Apple says it encourages a comprehensive tax reform to promote growth and allow American multinationals to remain competitive.

Apple says it has helped create or support approximately 600,000 domestic jobs, of which 50,000 are Apple employees and 550,000 are indirectly related to other fields like manufacturing and logistics, among others. The company believes 290,000 jobs have been created from the "App Economy" from its App Store, and Apple has paid out a cumulative total of $9 billion to developers.

Apple also notes that it may be the "largest corporate income tax payer" in the country, paying almost $6 billion in fiscal 2012. It estimates that this represents 2.5% of all corporate income tax collected by the Treasury last year. Apple expects this figure to rise to $7 billion in fiscal 2013.

In Apple's view, a comprehensive reform would include a tax system that is revenue neutral, eliminates all corporate tax expenditures, lowers income tax rates, and implements a reasonable tax on foreign earnings that allows capital to move freely. Apple argues that the current tax system was created under an "industrial era" that undermines U.S. competitiveness in a "digital economy." 

Cook is to testify before the Senate's Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations in connection with its inquiry into the tax practices of multinational companies.

link

Bank of America Faces an Uphill Battle Today

Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC  ) stock is taking a beating this morning, in a startling turnaround from last week's rally that buoyed the share price above $13, where it hovered all weekend. Unfortunately, it looks as if the great news of the bank's settlement with monoline insurer MBIA (NYSE: MBI  ) , which brought an unpleasant legal skirmish to an end, has worn off with the advent of Monday morning.

Bank of America's peers aren't looking too perky, either. Both Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC  ) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM  ) are down so far, as is Citigroup (NYSE: C  ) . Of course, JPMorgan has a right to be depressed, as the legal and political problems mount, both for the bank and for CEO Jamie Dimon himself. The others have legal problems bubbling up, too: Wells, along with B of A, is being sued by New York's Attorney General for mortgage settlement abuses, and Citi faces an action over a secretary it provided to William Salomon, of the late-but-not-so-great Salomon Brothers investment firm.

Bank of America, however, is experiencing especially heavy trading activity this morning, which makes me think things could go wrong very quickly for the megabank. So far, less than two hours into the trading week, the big guy has managed to bring its head up above water, just this moment breaking past its opening price of $13.02. Will the plucky bank be able to keep its gains of last week? Possibly so -- but it will likely be a struggle, hopefully one it will be able to win.

Will Bank of America be able to pull the big banks out of the hole they have fallen into? Regardless of the ups and downs these stocks experience today, keep in mind that it is the overall performance of a stock that really counts. As Foolish, long-term investors, we recognize the fact that one-day changes in share price don't make or break an investment. Even stocks have good days and bad days, so it's important to realize that sometimes they're not portents of dire news, but merely squiggles that we can safely ignore.

Bank of America's stock doubled in 2012 -- and, there may be more yet to come. With significant challenges still ahead, though, it's critical to have a solid understanding of this megabank before adding it to your portfolio. In The Motley Fool's premium research report on B of A, analysts Anand Chokkavelu, CFA, and Matt Koppenheffer, Financials bureau chief, lift the veil on the bank's operations, including detailing three reasons to buy and three reasons to sell. Click here now to claim your copy.

Sunday, March 29, 2015

MAKO Settles Patent Claim, Buys Competitor

Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based MAKO Surgical (NASDAQ: MAKO  ) shares were surging today on news that the company has settled its patent infringement dispute with Stanmore Implants Worldwide.

In a press release Tuesday, the robotic-surgery company announced that it has withdrawn its complaint against Stanmore and agreed to buy Stanmore's Sculptor Robotic Guidance Arm assets, including intellectual property, for a cash payment. Part and parcel of the settlement is Stanmore's agreement to stop doing business in the field of robotics -- removing a competitor to MAKO absolutely.

MAKO CEO Dr. Maurice R. Ferre, M.D., noted that acquiring Stanmore's robotics business not only removes a competitive threat to MAKO but also "improves MAKO's intellectual property position in robotically assisted orthopedic surgery."

MAKO shares are up 5.8% on the news, recently trading around $11.20.

More Expert Advice from The Motley Fool
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Friday, March 27, 2015

How 'Chained CPI' Will Hit Your Pocketbook

President ObamaGetty Images President Obama's new budget proposal includes changing a couple of key inflation calculations to something called a "chained CPI." The shift is getting a lot of attention right now because of the expected effect it will have on individuals. There are two key places where a chained CPI -- short for consumer price index -- will have a direct impact on your pocketbook: income taxes and Social Security benefits. All else being equal, over time, your income taxes will be higher and your Social Security benefits will be lower than they are under current inflation calculations. The key difference between the chained CPI and the traditional consumer price index is how the index measures consumer behavior. The chained CPI assumes that as prices rise on one product, some portion of consumers will be willing to substitute less expensive alternatives for what they used to buy. That changes the product weightings used in the inflation calculation. By incorporating information from those new product weightings, the chained CPI typically produces a lower inflation level. Here's how it works. The Impact on Income Taxes If you pay income taxes, your tax bracket is determined by the amount of taxable income you make. The cutoffs for each bracket generally rise over time with inflation. The two charts below show the IRS "Schedule X" brackets for single taxpayers; the first is for 2012, and the second is what's currently expected for 2013: IRS ChartChart for 2012 from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service Chart for 2013 from the US Internal Revenue ServiceChart for 2013 from the U.S. Internal Revenue Service While the 39.6 percent tax rate is new for 2013, note that the other brackets have higher cutoffs for 2013 than they did for 2012. That's thanks to the inflation adjustment made to the tax brackets. If the law is changed so that the chained CPI is used, the tops of those brackets are expected to rise more slowly, exposing more of your income to higher tax rates than under current law. The Effect on Social Security Benefits Similarly, Social Security benefits are increased based on the inflation rate. By tying the payment increases to the chained CPI -- an inflation rate that grows more slowly than the current measure -- those benefit payments will grow less quickly as well. As a result, over time your Social Security checks will be smaller than they would have been under the old inflation calculation. The annual changes aren't too extreme -- they're estimated to be somewhere in the vicinity of 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent per year, depending on what the future brings. But over time, it adds up to real money for those who pay income taxes or receive Social Security checks, with official estimates in the neighborhood of $340 billion in higher taxes and lower costs over the next 10 years. Is It Better? Is It Fair? To some extent, the chained CPI is more effective at measuring the behavior changes that we all make whenever possible to save some cash. For example, if you've switched to generic medications whenever they're available, you're doing exactly what the chained CPI expects you to do. Likewise, if you started carpooling or taking the bus in response to higher gas prices, you're changing your behavior based on higher prices, just like the chained CPI projects. On the flip side, of course, not all costs are easily switchable, especially for the seniors who rely on Social Security. For instance, health care costs have been rising faster than the overall inflation rate for decades, and older folks generally have higher health care costs than younger ones do. As a result, the change to a chained CPI will very likely make the gap between income growth and health care spending growth even more painful for seniors on Social Security. The Big Picture Still, if slowing the rate of benefit increases puts off the day of reckoning for when the Social Security Trust Fund runs out of cash and slashes benefits by around 25 percent, it may be worth it. That date is currently estimated to be a mere 20 years away -- well within the expected life span of most current workers and even some early retirees. To make it worse, if the CBO's recent release on Social Security is any indication, the next Social Security Trustees' Report may even pull that date even closer. Given a choice between a slower rate of growth or a hard slash of 25 percent at some point in the not-too-distant future, neither option seems ideal. But still, a slower rate of growth is a lot less painful than waking up one day to find your sole source of income has shrunk by a quarter of its former value.

Your age when you collect Social Security has a big impact on the amount of money you ultimately get from the program. The key age to know is your full retirement age. For people born between 1943 and 1954, full retirement age is 66. It gradually climbs toward 67 if your birthday falls between 1955 and 1959. For those born in 1960 or later, full retirement age is 67. You can collect Social Security as soon as you turn 62, but taking benefits before full retirement age results in a permanent reduction of as much as 25% of your benefit.

Monday, March 23, 2015

Consumer Sentiment Soars Despite Ebola Fears

Shoppers On Rodeo Drive Ahead Of Consumer Confidence Figures Kevork Djansezian/Bloomberg via Getty Images WASHINGTON -- While the appearance of the deadly Ebola virus in Texas is worrying the nation, it has yet to lead Americans to take a more cautious view over how to spend their money, data suggested Friday. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment unexpectedly rose in early October to its highest level since July 2007. Separate data showed groundbreaking for new homes rose more than expected last month, and taken together the reports pointed to solid U.S. economic growth. "The underlying strength of the U.S. economy remains intact," said David Berson, an economist at Nationwide Mutual Insurance in Columbus, Ohio. "If it were not for Ebola and geopolitical concerns, these [sentiment] numbers would be higher." The data for the sentiment survey was collected Sept. 25 to Oct. 15, a period in which Americans have been barraged by news of Ebola's spread in West Africa, where it has killed thousands, and its appearance in the United States. U.S. officials have confirmed three Ebola cases, all in Dallas, since Sept. 30 -- a Liberian man who later died of the disease and two nurses who had cared for him and are now being treated. Investors have been concerned that Ebola, if not contained in the United States, could scare consumers and lead them to cut back on spending, though there is little sign of that so far. The consumer sentiment survey period also overlapped with the global stock market sell-off earlier this week. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the sentiment index to fall, but instead it ticked two tenths of a point higher to 86.4. Consumers were more upbeat about their personal finances and the national economy. Other measures of consumer confidence have also failed to show much alarm. Gallup's daily poll of economic sentiment has been stable in recent weeks. At least when it comes to spending decisions, consumers remain focused on a strengthening economy. "Despite rising media coverage, Ebola seems to have had little discernible effect on consumer sentiment to date," Goldman Sachs analyst Kris Dawsey said. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 5.9 percent last month, a six-year low. Investors think the stronger job market will lead the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year after holding them near zero since 2008, though worries about the global economy and chronically low inflation have recently led them to bet the hike would be delayed until late in the year. Housing Recovery Intact A stronger job market helped the housing market recovery to advance last month, with groundbreaking at building sites rising more than expected. Housing starts rose 6.3 percent to an annual 1.02 million-unit pace, the Commerce Department said, the latest sign the sector was continuing to claw back after the implosion that touched off the 2007-2009 financial crisis and recession. Newly issued permits also rose. "If you look at the trend, you are still seeing an upward trajectory," said Michelle Meyers, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAC) in New York. U.S. stock prices jumped following a batch of solid corporate earnings reports, including profits by General Electric (GE) that topped analyst expectations. Share prices had fallen sharply earlier in the week, and the bounceback sucked money away from U.S. government debt, pushing yields higher for a second straight day. -

Saturday, March 21, 2015

Knowing When to Cash In

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Picking the right stocks is only half the battle. You have to know when to sell. This can be harder than you think: having done enough research to appreciate the positive aspects of a company, you may be inclined to disbelieve information that its expansion strategy is not working out as well as predicted, or that the stock price is simply overvalued.
 
One of the investment choices at Roadrunner Stocks that I am proudest of this year was my "sell" recommendation on Carbo Ceramics (NYSE: CRR) on June 5 of this year. At the time the stock price was up around 136. Since then, it has collapsed by more than 50 percent in less than four months. At last look it was selling at around 66. Quite a drop!

Here's what I wrote at the time: "Carbo Ceramics is still a great company, but its stock price appears fully valued and has run up on speculation concerning its Kryptosphere proppant for deepwater drilling applications. Given the forecast for deepwater slowdown, the excitement over Kryptosphere is probably overdone and setting the stock up for disappointment. In any event, Carbo Ceramics is the most expensive stock in the Value Portfolio, has a high short interest-to-float ratio above 20%, and no longer qualifies as cheap, so it's time to let go."

Why were we in favor of Carbo Ceramics to begin with? The firm recently introduced its most high-tech ceramic proppant to date: Kryptosphere. This new proppant targets the deepest (30,000+ feet down), highest-pressure deep-water wells in the Lower Tertiary of the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure per square inch (OSI) in these deep-water wells can exceed 20,000 pounds and Kryptosphere is the only proppant that can handle this enormous stress level without collapsing. According to Carbo, Kryptosphere is the "strongest, highest conductivity proppant ever made." 

Besides the fact that Carbo raised its dividend for 13 consecutive years and has a deb! t-free balance sheet, the main reason I liked Carbo is its technological leadership. Many oil and gas drillers are penny wise and pound foolish, choosing cheap proppant based on sand or inferior ceramics from China, Brazil, or Russia. Although these inferior proppants have a quick payback period, they damage the wells and make them much less productive over their lifespan than would be the case if they had used Carbo's state-of-the-art proppant.

Carbo CEO Gary Kolstad has been making the rounds of investment conferences educating analysts and the investing public about the increased estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) available from using Carbo's proppant and hopefully he is making headway. Drillers aren't stupid and eventually will understand that it is better to spend more up front for high-quality proppant if it means a higher present value of total profit over time.

Furthermore, Carbo's technological advances in deep-water proppant will have beneficial effects on its entire line of proppant. CEO Kolstad stated the following about Kryptosphere:

What we've learned in creating this new proppant will now benefit the rest of our proppant. I would be surprised if we don't obsolete all of our products. My dream is that we are going to create something here and obsolete everything we've ever made up to this time. And in fact, we're in little bit of a journey right now to figure out the capital cost to do conversions on plants to that. So if we do that and we hope we can maintain a similar cost structure, we certainly will obsolete a lot of these poor proppants like the Chinese.

One of the main components of competitive advantage is differentiation, and Carbo's Kryptosphere technology may be the differentiator that maintains Carbo's market-leadership position with high profit margins for years to come.

So while the long-term fundamentals of the company remain strong, the price simply rose too quickly. A lot of other people shared our enthusiasm for the c! ompany, b! asically. I like to think we were among the first to take our profits and run, though!

This is why it's so important to subscribe to Roadrunner Stocks. You can find "stock tips" anywhere. Sell signals are harder to come by – but they can make all the difference.

Thursday, March 19, 2015

CVS Caremark Corporation to Acquire Navarro Discount Pharmacy (CVS)

After the closing bell on Monday, CVS Caremark Corporation (CVS) announced that it will acquire the assets of Navarro Discount Pharmacy. 

Navarro Discount Pharmacy is based in Miami and is the largest Hispanic-owned drugstore chain in the U.S, with 33 retail locations in the country. Though the financial terms of the agreement were not disclosed, CVS announced that the acquired stores will remain under the Navarro brand.

Commenting on the acquisition, CVS President Helena Foulkes noted, “The acquisition of Navarro will strengthen CVS/pharmacy’s position in the Hispanic marketplace, the fastest growing demographic in the U.S., and we are excited to be adding the Navarro Discount Pharmacy brand to the CVS/pharmacy family”

CVS’s Dividend

CVS will pay its next quarterly dividend on August 1 to shareholders of record on July 27. The stock goes ex-dividend on July 17.

Stock Performance

DD stock ended Monday’s trading session 0.51% higher. YTD, the company’s stock is up 9.23%.

CVS Dividend Snapshot

As of Market Close on July 14, 2014

CVS dividend yield annual payout payout ratio dividend growth

Click here to see the complete history of CVS dividends.

Monday, March 16, 2015

5 Blue-Chip Stocks to Trade for Gains: Must-See Charts

BALTIMORE (Stockpickr) -- Another record close got booked in the S&P 500 yesterday, this time spurred by buying after an optimistic message from the Fed.

>>5 Stocks With Big Insider Buying

Year-to-date, the S&P has added 5.88% to its starting price, which means that it's on pace for 15.5% annualized total returns in 2014. That's a vastly different picture from where we stood just a couple of months ago, when the big index was actually down for the year. And, more important, it's creating some attractive trading opportunities in some of Wall Street's biggest names.

Today, we're turning to the charts for a technical look at five setups to trade for gains this week.

If you're new to technical analysis, here's the executive summary.

>>3 Huge Stocks on Traders' Radars

Technicals are a study of the market itself. Since the market is ultimately the only mechanism that determines a stock's price, technical analysis is a valuable tool even in the roughest of trading conditions. Technical charts are used every day by proprietary trading floors, Wall Street's biggest financial firms, and individual investors to get an edge on the market. And research shows that skilled technical traders can bank gains as much as 90% of the time.

Every week, I take an in-depth look at big names that are telling important technical stories. Here's this week's look at five high-volume stocks to trade this week.

SPDR S&P 500 ETF


It makes sense to begin with the broad market. To do that, we'll turn to our best investible proxy for "stocks" as a group: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY). The S&P essentially went straight up for all of 2013, but 2014 became a lot harder to decode thanks to a deep correction in January and a sideways churn that spanned from March to the end of May.

>>Move In to Hedge Funds' 5 Favorite REITs This Summer

But through it all, the most important takeaway has been the fact that nothing really changed in 2014; the S&P continues to be a "buy the dips market". We've just got to wait for the next dip.

Since late 2012, the S&P has been bouncing its way higher within an uptrending channel defined by a pair of parallel trend lines. That channel still identifies the high-probability range for SPY to stay within. Every test of trend line support in those last 19 months has provided a low-risk buying opportunity for investors.

With the big index near the top of its channel right now, another correction looks likely toward the end of this month, but that will be followed up by another ideal buying opportunity for stocks near that trend line support level.

Royal Dutch Shell


We're seeing the same setup in shares of oil supermajor Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.B) right now, with the key difference that the chart for RDS.B looks buyable here -- no waiting required. Like The S&P, Shell is bouncing its way higher in an uptrending channel right now. While Shell's channel hasn't been intact for quite as long as the one in the S&P 500, the trading implications are just the same: buy the bounce.

>>4 Big Stocks to Trade (or Not)

Waiting for a bounce is important for two key reasons: It's the spot where shares have the furthest to move up before they hit resistance, and it's the spot where the risk is the least (because shares have the least room to move lower before you know you're wrong). Remember, all trend lines do eventually break, but by actually waiting for the bounce to happen first, you're ensuring RDS.B can actually still catch a bid along that line before you put your money on shares. We got our bounce at the beginning of this week.

If you decide to jump into Shell here, I'd recommend keeping a protective stop at the 50-day moving average. That level has been a solid proxy for support on the way up, so if it gets broken, you don't want to own Shell anymore.

Wyndham Worldwide

2014 has been a pretty tepid year for shares of hotel and timeshare company Wyndham Worldwide (WYN). As I write, shares are down 0.73% from their 2013 close. But that sideways churn is setting the stage for a buyable breakout in this $9.3 billion name. Here's how to trade it.

>>5 Stocks Set to Soar on Bullish Earnings

Wyndham is currently forming an ascending triangle pattern, a bullish setup that's formed by horizontal resistance above shares at $75 and uptrending support to the downside. Basically, as WYN bounces in between those two levels, it's getting squeezed closer and closer to a breakout above that $75 resistance level. When that happens, it's time to be a buyer.

Why all of that significance at $75? It all comes down to buyers and sellers. Price patterns are a good quick way to identify what's going on in the price action, but they're not the actual reason a stock is tradable. Instead, the "why" comes down to basic supply and demand for Wyndham's stock.

The $75 resistance level is a price where there has been an excess of supply of shares; in other words, it's a spot where sellers have previously been more eager to step in and take gains than buyers have been to buy. That's what makes a breakout above $75 so significant -- the move means that buyers are finally strong enough to absorb all of the excess supply above that price level.

Accenture


Accenture (ACN) hasn't exactly been exciting either this year -- the $55 billion consulting firm has spent the last six months consolidating sideways. But like WYN, that sideways churn is actually setting the stage for a meaningful breakout. The level to watch in ACN is $84.

>>3 Big-Volume Stocks to Trade for Breakouts

Accenture is forming a rectangle pattern, a price setup that's formed by a pair of horizontal resistance and support levels that basically "box in" shares between $84 and $77. Consolidations like the one in Accenture are common after big moves (like the double-digit rally Accenture booked in 2013); they give the stock a chance to bleed off momentum as buyers and sellers figure out their next move.

Rectangles are "if/then patterns." Put a different way, if Accenture breaks out through resistance at $84, then traders have a buy signal. Otherwise, if the stock violates support at $77, then the high-probability trade is a sell. Since ACN's price action leading up to the rectangle was an uptrend, it favors breaking out above $84.

As usual, keep a tight stop in place if you decide to be a buyer on the move.

CRH


Not all of the names we're looking at today are bullish. In fact, shares of building materials company CRH (CRH) looks downright bearish thanks to a classical reversal pattern that's seen setting up in shares for the last few months. Now, with shares of CRH within grabbing distance of a key breakdown level, this stock is close to triggering a big sell (or short) signal.

CRH is currently forming a head and shoulders top, a setup that indicates exhaustion among buyers. The setup is formed by two swing highs that top out at approximately the same level (the shoulders), separated by a higher high (the head). The sell signal comes on a move through CRH's neckline, which is currently right at $27. If shares violate that neckline level, look for $22.50 as the next-nearest support level where shares could catch a bid again.

We're seeing that confirmed by relative strength right now. CRH's relative strength uptrend broke in early May, a signal that shares are statistically more apt to underperform the S&P 500 for the next three-to-ten month span. Buyers beware.

To see this week's trades in action, check out the Must-See Charts portfolio on Stockpickr.

-- Written by Jonas Elmerraji in Baltimore.


RELATED LINKS:



>>3 Stocks Under $10 Making Big Moves



>>5 Retail Stocks to Trade for Gains in June



>>5 Rocket Stocks to Buy for a Correction Week

Follow Stockpickr on Twitter and become a fan on Facebook.

At the time of publication, author had no positions in the names mentioned.

Jonas Elmerraji, CMT, is a senior market analyst at Agora Financial in Baltimore and a contributor to

TheStreet. Before that, he managed a portfolio of stocks for an investment advisory returned 15% in 2008. He has been featured in Forbes , Investor's Business Daily, and on CNBC.com. Jonas holds a degree in financial economics from UMBC and the Chartered Market Technician designation.

Follow Jonas on Twitter @JonasElmerraji


Don't fear Friday the 13th for stocks

dow 1030 NEW YORK (CNNMoney) For a summer Friday, markets are feeling a bit feisty. From Iraq to Priceline, there's much for investors to weigh.

Here are the 5 big themes to follow:

1. Don't get spooked by Friday the 13th: Wall Street isn't too superstitious when it comes to Friday the 13th. At least in June. Dating back to 1928, stocks have risen on 10 of the last 12 occasions when Friday the 13th occurred during the month of June, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

To that end, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq were all up over 0.25% by mid-morning. Stocks started out the week grinding to new highs, but fell Wednesday and Thursday.

2. Priceline names a price and others follow: Priceline (PCLN, Tech30) on Friday said it was buying restaurant reservations site OpenTable (OPEN) for $2.6 billion. Shares of OpenTable skyrocketed almost 50%, trading over the $103 a share sale price, while Priceline fell. Other internet stocks catering to local businesses soared on the news as well, including Yelp (YELP), Groupon (GRPN), and Grubhub (GRUB).

Besides those companies, Intel (INTC, Tech30)powered forward by almost 7% after the company announced a more positive outlook for the second quarter. Business PC purchases are picking up, according to Intel. Rival Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Tech30) also got a nice boost.

Investors were also keeping an eye on DreamWorks (DWA), which releases the second installment of its widely popular "How to Train Your Dragon" saga over the weekend. The independent media company is hoping a good box office showing for that film will make up for the less-than-stellar performance of its "Mr. Peabody and Sherman" earlier this year. DreamWorks shares have gotten a lift in the past month, but are still down over 20% this year.

3. Oil, gold, producer prices on the move: Concerns about increasing instability in Iraq continued to rattle the oil markets and raise a red flag in the stock market. Crude oil prices are trading at nine-month highs, pushing higher to almost $107 per barrel. Large areas of the country have been overrun by militants, raising fears that oil production and exports could be hit.

!

Oil prices were last this high in September 2013. On Thursday, oil jumped by more than 2%.

Gold prices rallied by over $10 Thursday but were flat Friday at $1,274 per ounce. Gold tends to rise in turbulent times as investors seek safe havens.

And a key measure of inflation, the Producer Price Index, fell unexpectedly into negative territory Friday, raising concerns about slower growth in the U.S.

4. Rate hike across the pond?: Investors have remained confident that central banks will keep rates low for some time, but that conviction is now being called into question. On Thursday, the head of the Bank of England said that U.K. interest rates could rise sooner than markets expect. That could mean a rate rise as early as the end of 2014. The pound climbed against the dollar to its highest level in years on the announcement.

Steven Englander, managing director at CitiFX, said the warning would turn the spotlight back on policymakers at the U.S. Federal Reserve.

"Investors [will] look to next week's Federal Open Market Committee [meeting] as a guide to whether the Fed sees itself beginning the road to normalizing policy or engaged in an ongoing effort to avoid normalization for as long as possible," he said.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged.

5. More International action: European markets were mostly declining in afternoon trading, while Asian markets ended with mixed results. India's market dropped this week, although it is still a top performer for the year -- up over 19%.

Bravil's Bovespa Index was on a tear all week -- up nearly 4% as of yesterday as the World Cup kicked off, but the index is down slightly Friday as protests continue to rock the country.

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Ackman At Sohn: Get Off Our Fannie

Investor Bill Ackman, who knows a thing or two about real estate, just made the case for reforming Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) but keeping them independent of government control.

Bloomberg News

Here it is:

The government-sponsored enterprises "are vital today." Fannie and Freddie is two businesses:  the main one is pooling mortgages, putting them in a trust, issuing bonds and guaranteeing interest and principal. Fannie and Freddie take the credit risk for the borrower and create low-cost mortgages with their huge scale. Says Ackman: They create the securitization for mortgages that otherwise would be a huge drag for banks. They provide financing access to middle income people. Without them, we wouldn't have a mortgage market.

"We like this business because it has low liquidity risk … they are not exposed to regional housing risk, and" a national downturn, despite the recent one, is rare, Ackman says.

On the other hand, the fixed-income arbitrage business, which requires very little capital "is a bad business," Ackman said He argued that Fannie and Freddie have paid $203 billion in dividends back to the government, but that if housing finance reform is accomplished, Fannie and Freddie would need $500 billion to meet requirements – "impractical" and "not viable," Ackman said.

Banks aren't likely to step in and provide meaningful amounts of mortgages, he says, because they can't support themselves with floating-rate deposits to support 30-year loans at fixed rates. A new system to replace Fannie and Freddie would need to be tested in another crisis, and that could be decades off.

"We think the most important thing is to maintain the 30-year mortgage, or the economy collapses. We propose a 250-basis-point capital requirement, or almost 5 times what they had before – a fortress balance sheet. The industry will be massively overcapitalized. And, wind down the fixed-income arbitrage business," Ackman said, adding: "This is a remarkable company if reformed, with profitability drivers. The recurring earnings power: $17 billion, and it can be more profitable as fees increase."

Fannie and Freddie need to raise about $183 billion in capital. Where will that come from? Fannie and Freddie are earning it and can recapitalize the business over the next 7 to 10 years, Ackman says.

Stocks are $4, and they are $23 stocks – and could go into the $40s.

The taxpayer owns 79% of these companies – and all told, an even higher percentage goes to taxpayers as the stocks improve, Ackman says.

Bottom line: "Affordable housing is important. We have a choice, and if the U.S. government takes over Fannie and Freddie, it would be a disaster for jobs and U.S. debt. His conclusion: we should "get off our Fannie."

Shares of Fannie Mae have gained 3% to $4.10, while Freddie Mac has jumped 6.3% to $4.23.

Tuesday, March 10, 2015

7 Smart Ways to Take Advantage of Your Tax Refund

7 Smart Ways to Take Advantage of Your Tax Refund Alamy Tax season is a time of stress for many, but it can be a joyful time for the roughly 75 percent of Americans who receive income tax refunds. While the refund really means you're getting back money you loaned to the government at no interest, in practical terms it often means an unexpected infusion of cash into your wallet or bank account. Last year's average income tax refund was $2,755, according to the Internal Revenue Service. That's a nice chunk of change. It's a great problem to have: What do you do with your windfall? The best choice for one person may not be the best choice for another. But experts agree on one thing: If you have debt, apply your refund to paying it off, whether it's credit card debt, student loan debt or other consumer debt. "People should still be focusing first on paying down debt," says Meisa Bonelli, a Wall Street finance and tax professional whose Millennial Tax company advises entrepreneurs on business and tax strategy. Debt, particularly student loan debt, should be a primary target because it limits financial options, preventing people from doing what they want with their money, whether it's buying a house, buying a car or taking a vacation. "Get that debt gone," she says. "It holds you back from everything else you want to do in life." Eric Rosenberg, a financial analyst who writes the blog Narrow Bridge Finance, agrees. "The No. 1 thing anyone should do with a tax refund is pay down debt," he says. After he left graduate school with $40,000 in student loan debt, he focused on aggressively paying it off. Using all his tax refunds and bonuses, he made the final payment just two years and six days after his graduation. With his student loan debt cleared away, he began saving his tax refunds, with the goal of buying a home. He didn't apply any of his refund money to splurges -- instead, he saved for fun and vacation with his regular income. The refunds were earmarked for bigger things. "I treated it like it was extra money that I didn't need to live on," Rosenberg says. "I always encourage people to think long term, not short term." Others believe that giving yourself license to splurge with part of your refund helps you save the rest. Stephanie Halligan, a financial consultant and blogger, signs a contract with herself before she does her taxes, allocating 50 percent of her refund to student loans and 25 percent to long-term savings. She can spend the remaining 25 percent on whatever she wants. "It's easy to react on impulse and emotion when your refund hits, so prepare now for what you'll do with that moolah later," she advises on her personal finance website, The Empowered Dollar. If you're getting a big refund ­-- a check in the ballpark of $1,000 or more for taxpayers who don't have a side business -- consider adjusting your withholding so that you'll have that money available to you during the year. But those who don't have substantial savings want to avoid a scenario in which they owe four figures to the IRS at tax time. "I think people should withhold the maximum they can withhold," Bonelli says. Rosenberg concurs. As his businesses, running Narrow Bridge Finance and building websites, have grown, his refunds have shrunk. Last year he had to pay the IRS. Here are the seven smartest things you can do with your refund: Pay down debt. If you have any consumer debt -- student loans, credit card balances or installment loans -- pay those off before using your refund for any other purpose. Car payments and home mortgages aren't in this category, but you can consider paying extra principal. Add to your savings. "You can never save enough," Bonelli says. You can use the money to build up your emergency fund, your kids' college funds or put it toward a specific goal, such as buying a house or a car or financing a big vacation. Add to your retirement accounts. If you put $2,500 from this year's tax refund into an IRA, it would grow to $8,500 in 25 years, even at a modest 5 percent rate of return, TurboTax calculates. If you saved $2,500 every year for 25 years, you'd end up with more than $130,000 at that same 5 percent rate of return. Invest in yourself. This could mean taking a class in investing, studying something that interests you or even taking a big trip. "Do something that enriches yourself or adds value to your life," Bonelli says. She is planning to take a class in art therapy this year using money from her refund. Improve your home. Consider putting your refund to good use by adding insulation, replacing old windows and doors or other improvements that would save energy, and therefore money. Or perhaps it's time to remodel your bathroom or kitchen. You're adding value to your home at the same time you're improving your living experience. Apply your refund toward next year's taxes. This is common among self-employed taxpayers, who are required to pay quarterly taxes since they don't have taxes withheld. By applying any overpayment toward upcoming tax payments, you can free up other cash.

Sunday, March 8, 2015

8 Ways My Theater Degree Helps Me Succeed as a Business Owner

Actors rehearsing on stage Getty Images/Blend Images RM A major in theater often sits atop lists of the most useless college degrees, but by studying theater as an undergrad, I actually think I learned how to bootstrap my business. (I also went to a state college, so it was an affordable theater degree. Shout out to Minnesota State University - Mankato!) Here's a list of the valuable skills I acquired there that I've taken to heart over the last 10 years, and how they affect my business today. 1. Show Up In theater, if you don't audition, you won't get cast. You have to put yourself out there. Nowadays, I email people I don't know. I didn't know that this was weird. I've always reached out to people whose work I admire. I email people every week, and I don't expect anything in return. Sometimes I get an email back; sometimes I don't. But that's OK, because I just wanted to let that person know how his or her work has affected me. In theater, you audition for show after show after show, and you rarely get cast -- but if you don't put yourself out there, you'll never get cast. People ask how I've managed to get so much press in the past year; the answer simple: I'm not afraid to put myself out there. 2. Connect With People Immediately Theater always attracts the most interesting characters, and you learn to accept people for their uniqueness. You also learn how to get along with people who drive you nuts. More importantly, theater taught me how to connect with people instantly. I love finding out what others are interested in and connecting them with others who share their interests. I learned (just a few years ago) that this is called "networking." I thought everyone did this!

Get used to being rejected -- and get over it.

Again, I connect with people and form relationships without expecting anything in return. It's fun for me, and it's helped me grow my business because other people will say, "I'm going to connect you with so-and-so about blah-blah-blah" and then an email later, we're connected! It's often the people skills or "soft skills" that separate those who are successful in business from those who aren't. I love making friends with new people who share my passions. It's part of the reason I love Twitter so much! 3. Get Used to Hearing 'No' As a performer, I auditioned for shows all the time. The process goes like this: You go in, you do a one-minute monologue, sing 16 bars of a song, say "thank you," and that's it. You often don't hear back. When you do, it's called a "callback." (Side note: I got a callback for the lead in almost every musical in college, but never got cast as the lead even once. This means it was down to me and a few other girls. At the time, that was soul crushing, but read on.) I think this is really good training for an entrepreneur because you get used to hearing "no." Some prospects become clients, and some don't. Regardless, the best thing you can do is learn from the experience and move on to the next one. Get used to being rejected -- and get over it. 4. Be Entertaining You should enjoy your business and make it fun -- that's what keeps life interesting. I really love to teach, and I truly believe it's my job to educate my clients about their money. I also love giving presentations on money to high school or college students. I try to make them fun and entertaining. It's because of my theater training that I'm not afraid to give an impromptu speech at an event, speak in a classroom, or give a toast at a friend's wedding. It's called improvisation, and it's something I learned in college. Daniel Pink mentions the importance of improv in his book "To Sell Is Human," which I highly recommend. These are life skills that can help anyone who runs a business. 5. Work Your Butt Off I performed in 15 full-length shows while I was in college, plus dozens of scenes and workshops. (If you Google me, you're sure to find some hilarious performance photos that involved big hair.) I rehearsed from 6 p.m. to 10 p.m., Sunday through Friday, for most of my college career. I didn't know what "free time" was until I graduated and worked a day job. When you run your own business, you have to work your butt off. You're in control of your time, but it doesn't fall into the normal 8-to-5 week that most people work. I love that I can meet my mom for lunch on a Tuesday, but that also means sometimes I'm cranking out a blog post on a Saturday night. Do what you need to do to move your business forward every day. As a business owner, you either pay someone to do something for you, or you learn how to do it yourself. You'll be surprised at what a YouTube tutorial can teach you. (Quick: Do a YouTube search right now for whatever you want to learn!) Luckily, I'm a life learner, because it's been imperative that I "bootstrap" my business for the first year. 6. Learn From Experts and Invest in Yourself When you have an opportunity to learn from experts, take advantage of it. In theater, we call this a "master class." It's when a well-regarded director, producer or performer decides to teach a workshop. Yes, it costs money and it takes time and energy, but you should go. Why? Because you'll learn more in those few hours than you've learned in the last six months. In business, I do this by attending conferences and reading books. Actors are always taking voice lessons, dance classes, and investing in their craft. I learned the importance of investing in one's self from my undergrad years. I've always loved reading, but now that I own a Kindle, I'm a voracious reader. I spend money on books that have to do with marketing, personal growth, Gen Y, finance, and entrepreneurship. Learning from people who are at the top of their field will help you grow by leaps and bounds. This is why I love podcasts so much: They're a free way to listen to experts and apply their knowledge and advice to help me grow my business. (Check out my last post, 5 Podcasts That'll Help You Think Like an Entrepreneur). 7. Take Risks and Embrace Vulnerability Blogging is scary. Quitting your job to start a business is terrifying. These things take guts. I don't think that I'd have been as willing to take those leaps had I not been a theater major. I had four years of intense training on learning what it means to up the stakes, take risks and be vulnerable. Example: Sometimes you show up to an audition and you're paired with some guy (who you don't know) to read a scene together. In the scene, you kiss. You have to kiss a person you just met and pretend to be madly in love with him, with only enough prep time to read through the scene once and say, "Hi. I'm Sophia. Nice to meet you." (Really, this happens all the time.) As a business owner, you have to put yourself out there: with your website, your blog, and through social media. It might not always be pretty or perfect, but that's OK. It's part of being human, and most people like the fact that you're not perfect. It's part of embracing vulnerability. (Need help? Watch Brené Brown's TED Talk on the power of vulnerability.) All of this is enormously challenging, but it's worth it. At times, I've received a few hurtful comments, but for the most part, my community really enjoys the content I'm creating and supports my work, so it inspires me to keep going. 8. Never Stop Creating