Friday, August 31, 2012

The U.S. vs. Apple

The following video is part of our nationally syndicated Motley Fool Money radio show, with host Chris Hill talking with Ron Gross, James Early, and Charly Travers. This week, the United States Department of Justice sued Apple and five major publishers and accused them of collusion to artificially increase the price of e-books. Apple responded in part by declaring it broke Amazon.com's "monopolistic grip on the publishing industry." In this segment, the guys analyze the potential damage to Apple's reputation and what it means for investors.

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For more on Apple, check out The Motley Fool's brand-new free report, "5 Stocks Investors Need to Watch This Earnings Season." It details what to look for from Apple and four other must-watch companies as they report their latest results. You can get instant access to this free report simply by clicking here -- it's free.

I Have Money to Invest, What Should I Do – Gearing Your Investments by Up to Three Levels Deep

How many people in today’s rat race of a world of paid slavery can turn around, go to their financial adviser and ask the question “I have money to invest what should I do?”

Probably not a lot and most definitely a lot less than what should be the number.

The truth is more people should be in a position to ask that question, but the sad reality is that a lot of people are not in a position to ask that question, which is why there is a difference in the income structures of different people.

Other people enjoy the pleasures of life and have more time to spend doing the things they love doing, while other people are slaves to the dollar, working all their lives with the hope of one day having a comfortable retirement.

If you’re going to enter into the world of investments you have to understand the concept of gearing as this is where a lot of people lose out on the potential to make a lot more money than they otherwise would have made initially.

Gearing is the process whereby a single amount of money that enters into the credit setup is multiplied through the process of the derivatives markets, something which is common to any credit setup but it only benefits the financial institution which offers the credit and does not benefit the debtor.

If you are on the other side of the coin you stand to gain much more money out of each and every single investment you make, with each value having the potential to be geared by up to three levels and that means you can add three zeros to each and every figure that you put into your investment.

The implications thereof are far-reaching and could mean the difference between a good investment and a great investment, but you have to have a little bit of information in order to take advantage of this underlying market which exposes the fallacy pushed by the financial institutions that there is scarcity when it comes to money instead of abundance.

The fact of the matter is if everybody knew about this abundance and the entire world acted to take advantage of that the banks would go bankrupt, and a lot of financial institutions would go out of business themselves.

But how do you take advantage of this market? How do you gear your investments with the aim of getting returns of up to three times as much as you put in?

The answer lies in taking up investment schemes that offer you the option of profiting from the underlying processes of gearing.

Take the weight loss industry for example — if you sell herbalife health products, you have invested in the inventory or physical stock of the products. Your sale of a product thus brings in profits on one level but, in order to leverage the underlying derivative market, you should also buy up some herbalife shares. That way your dollar gains value in an extra way, from one transaction.

Imagine doubling your money every week with no or little risk! To discover a verified list of Million Dollar Corporations offering you their products at 75% commission to you. Click the link below to learn HOW you will begin compounding your capital towards your first Million Dollars at the easy corporate money program. http://www.dollarmultiplierguide.com

Wednesday Apple Rumors: Neil Young Urged Steve Jobs to Develop Hi-Def Digital Audio

Here are your Apple rumors and AAPL news items for today.

Steve Jobs Discussed HD Music Format With Neil Young: Speaking with All Things Digital at the D: Dive Into Media event, legendary rock icon Neil Young said that the problem with the modern music industry isn’t the rise of digital distribution but the audio quality of MP3s. The solution, according to Young, is improved, significantly larger digital music files in a different format that could offer the high-definition sound quality common to traditional analog music formats like vinyl records. Steve Jobs, famously a vinyl fan, had discussed the problem with Young before he passed away in October 2011. Jobs was “working on it,” according to Young, but was apparently nowhere near announcing a new audio format to replace the MP3 or even the high-quality lossless audio format supported by iTunes.

Apple Buying Up HDTV Parts from Big Suppliers: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster threw more fuel on the Apple HDTV fire on Tuesday, claiming in a note to investors that a “major TV component supplier” told him that Apple is actively shopping for parts. Munster believes that the manufacturer’s statements are strong indicators that Apple will in fact release an HD television set by the end of 2012. Rumors about Apple’s TV kicked into high gear in October after Walter Isaacson’s biography Steve Jobs quoted the late CEO as saying he had “finally cracked” designing an HD television for Apple. Munster, however, originally had indicated that Apple would delay release such a device for significantly longer, suggesting in September 2010, for example, that Apple’s deal with Rovi (NASDAQ:ROVI) confirmed that Apple would sell its own TV by 2014, along with its own content services.

Kindle Sales Triple as Amazon Earnings Disappoint: You’ve got to spend money to make money. That maxim was painfully borne out for Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) when it reported its fourth quarter earnings on Tuesday. The company saw a 57% decline in net income because of a $4.7 billion increase in spending. The company invested heavily in developing and releasing its Kindle Fire tablet computer last fall. Earnings may have missed Wall Street expectations, but Amazon’s strategy worked in terms of establishing itself in Apple’s market. Amazon still refuses to reveal specific sales numbers but the company did say that the Kindle line of products saw a 177% increase in sales and that it sold “millions” of Kindle Fire tablets.

As of this writing, Anthony John Agnello did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned stocks. Follow him on Twitter at�@ajohnagnello�and�become a fan of�InvestorPlace on Facebook. For more from the company, check out our previous�Apple Rumors�stories.

Tech Stocks: Tech stocks weighed down by chip sector

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) � Technology stocks were weighed down by selling pressure in the chip sector on Wednesday, after a J.P. Morgan analyst sounded a bearish tone on the group.

/quotes/zigman/1468249 SOX 365.55, -13.10, -3.46%

The Nasdaq COMP � slipped nearly 1% to close at 2,874.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor IndexSOX slipped 1.7% as the Morgan Stanley High-Tech Index MSH �fell by 1.3%.

Among makers of semiconductor manufacturing tools, KLA-Tencor KLAC , Lam Research LRCX �and Novellus �were each down 5%. Lam and Novellus are in the process of merging.

Christopher Blansett of J.P. Morgan downgraded the three stocks to underweight, or the equivalent of sell. In a note to clients, the analyst predicted �a downtick� in capital expenditures by chip foundries in the second half of the year, and that capital spending in the memory and logic sectors of the business will be lower than many investors expect.

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�At this time demand momentum for semi equipment appears to be slowing, and we think news flow associated with semi capex is likely to turn negative as we head into the summer,� Blansett wrote.

He maintained his neutral rating on sector leader Applied Materials AMAT �, which reports second fiscal quarter results on Thursday afternoon. He noted that the stock�s recent losses has priced in much of the weakness he expects for the sector. Applied shares fell 1.4% to close at $10.66.

Offsetting the declines somewhat for the chip group was Micron Technology MU �, which was up 2% closing at $6.15 after some brokers issued positive notes on the company�s expected merger with bankrupt Japanese chip maker Elpida, which is currently in negotiations.

Apple AAPL �shares fell 1.3% to close at $546.08, adding to losses that have brought the stock down about 3.6% so far for the week. In a note to clients, Scott Craig of Bank of America/Merrill Lynch said investors have become �overly focused� on concerns about falling smartphone subsidies from wireless carriers, and how that might affect the companies flagship iPhone business.

Click to Play Investors abuzz over Facebook IPO

Investors gathering at the Money Show in Las Vegas traded strategy and tips, but the big topic in the room was Facebook's upcoming IPO, Mark Hulbert reports on Markets Hub.

�In our opinion, the carrier risk is minor, and the iPhone expectation risk is likely most in the stock,� he wrote.

Facebook Inc. FB �raised the share count for its initial public offering, expected for later this week. Several insiders added shares to the offering a day after the company raised its expected price range to $34-$38 per share. Read IPO Report on Facebook.

Peers in the social networking space saw a strong morning. LinkedIn Inc.LNKD �was up 2.7% closing at $113.49 while Groupon Inc.GRPN �rose 7.2% to close at $13.05 and Yelp Inc. YELP �added nearly 4% to close at $21.60.

On the other hand, Zynga Inc. ZNGA �lost 4% to close at $8.22.

Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter affirmed what�s been described as the �Facebook halo.�

�People are excited about how oversubscribed the deal is, and are excited that the price range was increased. I think investors are looking for ancillary ways to play the Facebook demand, so shares of other companies are up as a result,� he said in comments via email.

Time to Take Trading Gains on New Home Sales Updraft

Stronger than expected New Home Sales in December raised housing stocks higher Wednesday, but whether the lift will last beyond the short short term is still unclear. Yes, there is hungry money sniffing for the turn in housing, in order to prosper on the inflection point and the beaten down sector. But this latest spike is partly an expression of greed and speculation, and could be too early to hold.

New Home Sales were reported running at an annual rate of 329K in December, above expectations for 300K, based on Bloomberg’s survey of economists. In percentage terms, the pickup in rate of sales was an impressive 17.5% over the revised November rate of 280K (from 290K), but when small numbers are compared, percentages are exaggerated. The absolute rate of sales, at 329K, still represents a pathetic state of affairs, despite the season being measured here. This is illustrated through the comparison of this December with the prior year period; that measure shows New Home Sales are actually down 7.6% from a run rate of 356K.

Other data of late around housing has been mixed on a relative basis and still weak in absolute terms. Of course, change of direction and velocity matter more than absolute, but that change has to be sincere for it to provide a long-term basis for stock purchases.

Wednesday, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported Mortgage Activity fell. The Market Composite Index of activity declined 12.9% for the period ended January 21. The decline came on 15.3% lower Refinance activity and 8.7% lower Purchase activity. In fact, the Purchase Index was at its lowest level since October. Given, though, that this kind of activity during this time of year can be influenced by seasonal issues, like excessive storm activity. So we should not read too much into it.

S&P Case Shiller showed ongoing pricing weakness. While this is reflective of softness in the measured November period, it is actually prospective for the industry’s outlook. At some point, price will meet demand and drive it. The Census Bureau estimates 321K new homes were sold in 2010, down from 2009’s 375K. It seems likely that 2010 marked the bottom in the new home market, and so the hungry speculators have good enough reason to prospect. Still, foreclosure activity and distressed property flow is still heavy, and represents an obstacle for homebuilders.

Existing Home Sales were reported last week for December, up to a rate of 5.28 million, exceeding the November run rate of 4.7 million. It also surprised economists, who were looking for a gain to only 4.9 million. Housing Starts data for December was down though, to an annual rate of 529K, from 553K. What’s worse is that single-family starts were down from November, to a rate of 417K, from 458K. Permitting, however, which is more important to readers here, spiked up to 635K, from 530K. Since this directly measures the new construction arena, it is certainly on housing investors’ minds. However, closer inspection shows that permitting for single-family home construction, most relative to homebuilder shares, rose at a lesser rate, up only 5.5%, to 440K.

Thus, the data is inconclusive. While the bottom looks to have been marked, that possibility does not necessarily signify that new growth is in store. Now, the housing stocks will precede that eventual business growth in claiming capital ground, due to the type of prospective betting that is occurring today. Thus, the question to ask is will near-term data flow support a case for steady gains? I have to believe that remains suspect. So, while shares of Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL +1.4%), Hovnanian (NYSE: HOV +3.4%), D.R. Horton (NYSE: DHI +1.0%) and others were on the rise Wednesday, you can expect their movement through the next year’s clarification to be choppy. Thus, there’s trading opportunity, versus investment at the moment. You might even sell on the day’s strength and take a trading profit in the short short-term if you can get it.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

Dual Citizen Tax Relief From IRS

Image via caribarena.com

The IRS has released a �fact sheet� with favorable guidance for U.S. citizens residing abroad who failed to file U.S. tax returns and those pesky little FBARs (Treasury Forms TD F 90-22.1) for foreign accounts.  This is good news for many who have been wringing their hands over the IRS crackdown on worldwide reporting and FBARs.

Still, it�s not blanket relief.  It depends on your facts and how reasonably you�ve acted.  U.S. citizens planning to address their situation need to tread carefully.

Here are the basics:

  • If you make more than a minimum exemption amount and standard deduction, you must file a U.S. income tax return annually and report your worldwide income (regardless of where else it might be taxed).
  • If you failed to file U.S. taxes for many years, you generally only need to file six back years.  But if you owe no tax on those returns, there should be no penalty.
  • For FBARs, you need to file annually if your non-U.S. accounts aggregate over $10,000.  For FBAR basics, see Primer For First Time FBAR Filers.
  • That Was Then. Up to now, the IRS has applied the 2009 and 2011 voluntary disclosure standards, which could mean losing lots of your savings to FBAR penalties.  Now the IRS is trying a more fact-specific but also more favorable approach.

    Penalty Relief. The IRS says that if you live abroad, you won�t face penalties provided you show you exercised ordinary business care and prudence and have reasonable cause.  In assessing your care and prudence, relevant factors include your reasons for failing to meet your U.S. tax obligations; your compliance history; the length of time between your failure and later compliance; and circumstances beyond your control.

    You also need reasonable cause.  Relevant factors there include your education; whether you previously were subject to tax; whether you have been penalized before; and whether there were recent changes in the tax forms or law you could not reasonably be expected to know.

    Depending on your facts and circumstances, you may be able to establish reasonable cause if you can demonstrate you were not aware of your obligations to file returns or pay taxes.  In fact, here�s an example:

    Taxpayer is a U.S. citizen who lived in Country A for all of 2010 teaching English.  He complied with Country A�s tax laws and properly reported all his income on Country A tax returns.  Although he earned income in excess of the applicable exemption amount and standard deduction, he did not timely file a federal income tax return for tax year 2010.  After learning of his U.S. filing obligations, Taxpayer filed an accurate, though late, federal income tax return showing no tax liability after taking into account the Section 911 foreign earned income exclusion and the foreign tax credit for taxes paid to Country A.  Taxpayer is not liable for a failure to file penalty, since the amount of tax required to be shown on the federal income tax return is zero.  Similarly, Taxpayer is not liable for a failure to pay penalty, since the amount of tax shown on the return is zero.

    For FBARs, the Fact Sheet says you should file delinquent FBARs and attach a statement explaining why they were late.  You need not file FBARs due more than six years ago, since the statute of limitations is six years from the due date of the FBAR.  No penalty will be asserted if the IRS determines that the late filings were due to reasonable cause.

    For more, see:

    IRS May Find �Innocent� FBAR Violation Willful

    Should You File FBAR For The First Time?

    IRS Relief To Canadian Dual Citizens

    Oh Canada! Hating FBARs And FATCA

    AIG Moves Back Into Real Estate

    American International Group (AIG) sold off much of its onetime $24 billion portfolio of real estate holdings in the wake of the financial crisis that crippled the company, but it’s now returning to the U.S. property market.

    As the Wall Street Journal reports, AIG is looking to branch out from its current holdings, restricted to Europe, and has contacted apartment building developers in major urban areas, including New Jersey, California and Florida, according to people familiar with the matter. They note that the company likely hopes to amass enough holdings to eventually yield hundreds of millions of dollars per year.

    While apartments are not as flashy as the trophy properties AIG once owned, they are a potentially good bet, as homebuyers remain on the sidelines and rents rise.

    What 1200 Means for the S&P

    By Bryan McCormick

    The S&P 500 continues to move in a tight range ahead of the start of earnings season next week.

    As I have mentioned a few times in the last couple of months, market strategists have been targeting the 1200 area as one that the index could easily reach. At the lows of February, that may have seemed a lot less likely. Today, we are just a handful of points away.

    Why is the 1200 area so important? Fundamental analysts are looking at market multiples and the expected earnings flow from the SPX to get their target. On a technical basis, the 1200 level happens to have been very important in the recent past.

    On the first leg down in July 2008, the 1200 area was initial support. We can see this on the right side of the chart below. (I have drawn in the 1200 line in red to make it easier to see.) From that bounce, the index rallied nearly 10 percent before rolling over.

    The next time down, the index fell through that level, made a weaker bounce, and ultimately gave up at that area in late September 2008. From that point, it was a near vertical descent in a matter of a couple of weeks to the initial index lows around the 850 area.

    Nearly two years since the initial test at 1200 finds us back near 1200, this time as resistance. The key for earnings season is whether there will be sufficient surprising positive news to push the index through that level.

    If that happens, 1200 may quickly become support, leaving behind the corrective action of the index for some time to come. If not, 1200 may prove to be resistance for some time to come as well, awaiting future positive catalysts.

    Support for the recent leg of the uptrend is at the 10-day moving average, last at 1179.57, which I have shown in green. A breakdown below that moving average would snap the short-term uptrend.

    But the SPX would need to fall below the lows of February, at the 1050 area, to break the uptrend off the March 2009 lows.

    (Chart data provided by Thomson Reuters)

    A European Bank Is Your Best Buy for 2012 … Really!

    Why pick a European bank? Even worse, a Spanish bank? And even, even worse, the Spanish bank that has to raise the most capital among all European banks — $15.3 billion euros ($20 billion) — according to the European Banking Authority?

    Doesn�t everyone know that Europe�s banks are headed down the tubes, that they�re insolvent, that they�re headed to bankruptcy?

    Yes. But “everyone” could be wrong, and that’s exactly why you want to own Banco Santander (NYSE:STD).

    There’s no denying that, on the surface, this is an ugly, ugly stock — or rather, an American Depositary Receipt, or ADR. Banco Santander traded as high as $12.72 on July 1 and as low as $6.77 on Nov. 25. That�s a 38% drop in just a few months.

    The ADRs of Santander are certainly cheap: They trade at a 33% discount to book value (or a price-to-book ratio of 0.67.) And they carry a huge 10.9% yield on the company�s promised 2011 dividend. But that�s because everyone expects massive writedowns in the company�s book value as its portfolio of Spanish real estate loans and government bonds heads even further south. And because everyone expects that Santander will have to cut its dividend to meet regulators’ capital targets — even though chairman Emilio Botin promised to keep the dividend intact as recently as the end of the September 2011 quarter.

    But I think Banco Santander�s price has been a victim to standard investor behavior: In a panic, the motto is �Sell everything and sort it out later.�

    I think that seriously underestimates the strengths of Banco Santander — and especially the ability of what still is the world�s 11th largest bank by market capitalization to raise capital.

    The worry about European banks right now is that they can�t raise capital in the financial markets. It�s just too expensive when your shares are trading at 50% or 67% of book value. As a result, they can�t reduce their asset base by selling off debt because nobody wants to buy loans to Greek companies or mortgages on Spanish real estate — and they don�t have much in the way of non-core businesses to sell off, at least not at a decent price.

    During the past two quarters, Banco Santander has very clearly demonstrated that this bank doesn�t fit that profile of worries.

    First, this is a global bank with plenty of attractive assets outside of the struggling Spanish and euro zone markets. In the third quarter, the bank sold a piece of its Latin American insurance business and part of its U.S. consumer loan business for a total of $3.5 billion. In the fourth quarter, it sold pieces of its Chilean subsidiary and all of its Colombia unit for $2.75 billion.

    Second, Banco Santander is actually finding buyers for some of the most troubled assets in its portfolio. For example, as of Dec. 9 it had sold $8.81 billion in troubled loans at its Brazilian subsidiary, Santander Brasil. The discount was huge — loans originally valued at 16 billion Brazilian reals went for just 300 million Brazilian reals — but these loans were delinquent by a year or more and represented the most troubled part (a 9% part) of Santander Brasil�s portfolio. Getting them off the bank�s books — even at a very low price — takes a big whack at the risk-adjusted capital requirements of bank regulators.

    Third, Banco Santander is actually raising capital in the financial markets — although the bank has had to use some unusual methods for doing that. For example, the bank gives holders of its ADRs the option of taking new shares, without paying withholding tax, instead of cash for their dividends. In the third quarter, 73% of ADR holders took the share offer — that added cash to retained earning and $82 million in new capital. And it�s planning to sell convertible bonds, which will count as capital.

    Add in the bank�s almost $8 billion in free cash flow in the past 12 months, and I think Banco Santander won�t have any trouble presenting a plan for meeting the European Banking Authority�s capital requirements by the Jan. 20, 2012, deadline — without dipping into dividends. (The bank then will have until June 30 to execute that plan.)

    Unless, that is, Spain goes the way of Greece and the country has to write down its sovereign debt. Banco Santander holds $4.4 billion less of Spanish government debt in December 2011 than it held in July 2011. But it still holds almost $50 billion in Spanish government debt.

    If you think Spain will have to write off part of that debt, then Banco Santander sure isn�t the pick for you. If you think Spain is in better shape than Italy (or Greece), I think that in Banco Santander you�re looking at one of the best performers in 2012. (For more on why I think Spain isn�t headed down the tubes in 2012, see my post on JubakPicks.com.)

    I�d put a target of $12 on these shares by December 2012. That�s an almost 70% gain from the Dec. 15 price.

    Full disclosure: I don�t own shares of any of the companies mentioned in this post in my personal portfolio. Banco Santander is a member of my dividend income portfolio on JubakPicks.com. The mutual fund I manage, Jubak Global Equity Fund, may or may not currently own positions in any stock mentioned in this post. The fund did own shares of Banco Santander as of the end of September. For a full list of the stocks in the fund as of the end of September, see the fund�s portfolio.

    Jim Jubak is the brains behind Jubak Picks, a stock newsletter that has beaten the market since its inception in 1997. He also manages the Jubak Global Equity Fund (JUBAX) and operates Jubak Asset Management.

    How to Handle the Anxiety of Retirement: RIIA Confab

    How great is the anxiety over retirement? A study shows even greater, for some, than the worry generated over the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks in New York.

    That was the finding of a group of researchers at the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, said Andrew Eschtruth, associate director for external relations at the institute.

    “Thinking about retirement induces anxiety,” Eschtruth said Tuesday during a presentation at the Retirement Income Industry Association spring conference in Chicago. “People feel powerless. They don’t feel that they have control over their destiny … and could be facing a situation that could have a bad outcome or a good outcome.”

    Eschtruth, whose presentation was entitled “How People Behave: New Insights on Retirement Decisions,” broke down his talk into three major areas: retirement anxiety, saving strategies and drawdown behavior.

    Unsurprisingly, the Boston institute’s research shows that the financial crash of late 2008 has significantly affected the way people think about retirement and the ability of public institutions and private plans to provide for a safe nest egg.

    For instance, in the past few years there have been 613 average monthly Google citations with the search terms “state, local, crisis and pension fund.”

    Eschtruth (left) said the web searches reflect a real concern. The institute’s research shows that a larger percentage of people today are at risk of failing to maintain their current standard of living after retirement than before the financial crisis: 44% versus 51%.

    Gen Xers will suffer because the retirement age will increase to 67 in the years to come, but Eschtruth also pointed to a nagging problem for most Americans.

    Despite the crash in the markets and the housing crisis, individuals still aren’t saving enough for retirement.

    In one study, the Boston researchers investigated the behaviors of people in their 50s and older whose kids had left home. It might be reasonable to expect these parents to spend less of household income, but in fact the study found they spent more.

    Turning to the draw-down phase of retirement, Eschtruth said that attitudes toward home equity may change in the near future. Until now, research shows that retirees hold onto their homes well into their 80s and downsizing a home remains rare. In the future, however, ignoring home equity may be a luxury that few can afford. Without selling a home, more and more retirees will be at risk of not being able to afford retirement.

    Eschtruth suggested that if the investment advisors attending the conference explain the consequences of holding onto home equity, more retirees might sell and downsize. In fact, Eschruth provided data to show that once the threat to retirement health was made explicit, more people changed their behavior and decided to work longer or save more.

    Tiffany Worldwide Holiday Sales Up 7% Led by Growth in Asia

    Tiffany & Co. said Tuesday that its worldwide net sales in the two months ended December 31 increased 7 percent, year-over-year, to $952 million and that management has updated its full year earnings forecast accordingly.

    Robust sales in Asia were offset by weaker sales growth in the U.S. and Europe during the holiday sales period, the company said.

    �After achieving very strong and better-than-expected sales and earnings growth in the first three quarters of 2011, sales weakened markedly in the United States and Europe during the holiday season, reflecting restrained spending by consumers for fine jewelry,� said Michael J. Kowalski, Tiffany chairman and CEO.

    The luxury jeweler reported double-digit sales growth in Asia-Pacific and Japan regions and smaller increases in the Americas and Europe. On a constant-exchange-rate basis excluding the effect of translating foreign-currency-denominated sales into U.S. dollars, worldwide net sales rose 6 percent and same store sales increased 4 percent.

    In the Americas region�which includes the United States, Canada and Latin America�sales rose 4 percent to $503 million. On a constant-exchange-rate basis, total sales increased 4 percent and same store sales rose 2 percent�with same Americas� branch store sales rose 3 percent and New York flagship store sales declined 1 percent). Higher sales to tourists from outside the U.S. were partly offset by weakness in spending by U.S. customers. Combined Internet and catalog sales in the Americas were 4 percent below last year.

    Sales in the Asia-Pacific region increased 19 percent to $165 million. On a constant-exchange-rate basis, total sales increased 18 percent and same store sales increased 12 percent due to growth in most countries.

    In Japan, sales increased 13 percent to $160 million. On a constant-exchange-rate basis, total sales rose 5 percent and same store sales increased 6 percent.

    Sales in Europe increased 1 percent to $117 million. On a constant-exchange-rate basis, total sales increased 2 percent and same store sales declined 4 percent, reflecting modest sales growth in Continental Europe and lower sales in the U.K.

    The Company currently operates 246 stores (102 in the Americas, 57 in Asia-Pacific, 55 in Japan and 32 in Europe), versus 232 (96 in the Americas,  51 in Asia-Pacific, 56 in Japan and 29 in Europe) a year ago.

    Other sales, which primarily include wholesale sales of finished products to independent distributors within emerging markets and wholesale sales of rough diamonds, increased 8 percent to $8 million.

    Thursday, August 30, 2012

    5 Growth Stocks With Value Pricing

    Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula Investing (MFI) strategy is unequivocally a value strategy, ranking the entire universe of equities by earnings yield (a proxy for price-to-earnings multiple) and return on tangible invested capital. The stocks that rank at the top are, by design, cheaply priced against their past earnings, and have earned very high returns on retained capital.

    The key question, though, is can those high returns be re-invested at similar returns to generate an increasing revenue base? Without growth, there is a limited amount of stock appreciation potential.

    In light of this, I went looking for current MFI stocks that have delivered significant, trailing twelve month revenue increases against the prior year's period. This gives us a list of value priced stocks that have delivered good recent growth - often a sign that they will be able to continue growing in the near future.

    Instead of doing a straight statistical list of the fastest growers in MFI, I've filtered them down to 5 stocks where the revenue increases are likely to be indicative of a growing underlying market, instead of a one time aberration. For example, the fastest growing stock in MFI is Acadia Pharmaceuticals (ACAD), a development stage biopharmaceutical firm, with an over 300% revenue increase. However, this is entirely due to a one-time $35 million dollar milestone payment in December of last year - not really a sustainable driver of revenue growth.

    Within that framework, here are 5 interesting, value priced growth stocks:

    1) GT Advanced Technologies (GTAT)

    TTM year-over-year Revenue Growth: 64%

    GT Advanced Technologies is a production equipment provider for 3 areas: photovoltaic solar panels, polysilicion (the material used in panels), and sapphire crystals used for LED lighting production. While the solar and LED markets both seem to be in an oversupplied state at current, there is little question that both (especially LED) are set to grow rapidly over the next several years. This could make GTAT an attractive play at a currently dirt cheap valuation, for patient owners.

    2) KLA-Tencor (KLAC)

    TTM year-over-year Revenue Growth: 52%

    KLA-Tencor is also an equipment provider, for semiconductor production. The firm has a dominant position in yield management and process monitoring equipment. Some of the growth here is coming on a cyclical spike off of 2009's recessionary levels, but KLA's $3.3 billion in revenues over the past 12 months is still a company record. Given the proliferation of electronics in almost everything from mobile devices to automobiles to toys, there remains an undercurrent of growth that KLAC is set to benefit from for many years.

    3) Motorcar Parts of America (MPAA)

    TTM year-over-year Revenue Growth: 31%

    Motorcar Parts takes old alternators and starters and remanufactures them for the "do-it-yourself" auto repair market. The key underlying driver of revenue growth is an aging auto fleet, as new car sales have trailed the scappage rate for several years now. Tack-on aquisitions have served the firm well, and MPAA has also improved their cost structure by moving operations to Mexico and Malaysia. One of the best operated small auto parts businesses you will find.

    4) TeleNav (TNAV)

    TTM year-over-year Revenue Growth: 24%

    TeleNav offers its GPS Navigator voice-guided navigation software for mobile phones and other general-purpose computing devices. Contracts with Sprint and AT&T comprise the bulk of its business. This is a tough one, as there is a plethora of competition, much of it free, such as Android's built-in navigation app. However, TeleNav could make a nice acquisition candidate for one of the mobile OS providers looking for a quality navigation offering to add to or improve upon existing offerings.

    5) DG (DGIT)

    TTM year-over-year Revenue Growth: 23% (not including yesterday's quarter)

    DG provides digital delivery of traditional television and radio spots, as opposed to traditional physical "dub and ship" methods. The transition alone is attractive enough, as both television and radio move to digital distribution technologies. DG has also entered the online video ad creation/distribution business and integrated it with its TV offerings, creating a way to distribute video ads between the two mediums. There are a lot of underlying growth trends at play here.

    Disclosure: Steve owns GTAT

    NOK’s Lumia Doing Fine, Samsung, Apple Show Strength, Says Street

    A couple of roundup reports were put out this morning on the smartphone market, trying to sort out who’s in the pole position, principally here in the U.S., but also with some observations from Europe.

    Pacific Crest’s James Faucette writes that his “checks” with U.S. carriers’ sales reps indicate May’s handset sales were up in the month versus April, as is seasonally to be expected, though April set a “low bar” with weak sales. Demand in Europe is proving “worse than expected,” he writes.

    Sales of Nokia‘s (NOK) “Lumia” line of phones, developed with Microsoft (MSFT) were “reasonably good” in May, he writes:

    Our checks indicate that sales of Nokia�s flagship Windows phones, the Lumia series, continued at run rates in the United States roughly equal to those we detected a month ago. We continue to believe that Lumia 900 sales at AT&T in particular are benefiting from an ex- tremely broad advertising campaign, which may also be helping out sales of the Lumia 600 at T-Mobile by giving the Lumia platform greater overall exposure. Our checks indicate that sales of Lumia products in Europe likely increased from April.

    Faucette rates Nokia shares Sector Perform.

    HTC (2498TW) had trouble with some units in Europe, requiring the company to take back a “large portion” of its “One X” model in order to “re-flash” them for software errors.

    Samsung Electronics‘s (005930KS) “Galaxy S III” device is doing well, though a bunch of glitches with the roll-out mean that “few retail locations in Europe have actually received devices in stores.” Note that Samsung this morning announced availability in the U.S. later this month with several carriers.

    The Street may not fully appreciate the risk to chip maker Qualcomm (QCOM), writes Faucette, which is rated Outperform:

    We believe our forecast for the June and September quarters reflects the potential for a slowdown both from Europe and a potentially larger pause leading up to the launch of iPhone 5, which we believe will likely occur around October.

    Research in Motion (RIMM) continues to see sales in the U.S. slip, and inventory is mounting, he believes:

    Our checks indicate that U.S. BlackBerry sales declined further in May while inventory remained relatively stable. We believe days of inventory have risen to six to eight weeks, which is roughly 3x to 4x the carriers� normal targets.

    R.W. Baird’s William Power also adds his observations based on talking with 30 RadioShack reps last week, noting strength for Apple‘s (AAPL) iPhone 4S, and for the One X and Lumia:

    Across all carriers, the iPhone 4S continued to be the most recommended device, and several reps reported that it continues to be their best selling device. Outside of the iPhone, reps most frequently recommended HTC One X for AT&T users, with some also recommending the Nokia Lumia 900.

    Interestingly, Power makes a point of calling out a data point from startup Distimo, which makes software to monitor which smartphone apps are carried by the different application stores — Apple’s App Store, Google‘s (GOOG) Play Store, etc. He infers the prominence of Apple’s, Google’s and Microsoft’s stores:

    33% of the iPhone�s top 300 apps are also available on Google Play (fka Android Market). Notably, Apple�s App Store, Google Play, and Amazon�s App Store have the most overlap, which we view as an indicator that the most successful applications are targeting those three stores.

    See Distimo’s blog post from last week about the data here, with a rather fascinating graphic of overlapping app availability.

    Tim Hortons: The Cheapest Large Cap Fast Food Stock

    Many investors make the same common mistake - associating a stock's share price with its valuation and assuming that a high-priced stock is an "expensive" stock, and a low-priced stock is a "cheap" stock. In reality the actual price of the stock has nothing to do with how "cheap" a stock is trading. To help explain I will be employing several valuation techniques to find just how truly undervalued these fast food industry stocks are.

    Listed below are the five (5) largest stocks by market capitalization in the fast food industry: McDonald's Corp (MCD), Starbucks Corp. (SBUX), Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grille Inc. (CMG), and Tim Horton's Inc. (THI) and their relative valuation ratios.

    Company (Ticker )

    Current Price

    Current P/E Ratio

    EPS Growth

    PEG Ratio

    P/Book

    McDonald's

    $99.99

    18.94

    15.01%

    1.26

    7.22

    Starbucks

    $48.45

    29.11

    21.2%

    1.37

    8.24

    Yum! Brands

    $65.25

    23.83

    14.8%

    1.61

    15.69

    Chipotle Mexican Grille

    $384.70

    56.87

    20.10%

    2.83

    11.53

    Tim Horton's

    $50.57

    12.91

    103.53%

    .125

    6.06

    Share Price

    Looking just solely at the per-share price of each stock, McDonald's and Chipotle Mexican Grille are the highest priced of the selected stocks. We also see that Tim Horton's and Starbucks are the lowest priced of the stocks. However this is just purely a share price, and does not fundamentally explain whether the stock is over or under priced.

    Current P/E Ratio

    The price to earnings ratio is the simplest tool to use when examining how a stock's share price is trading in relation to the company's underlying earnings. Quite simply - the lower the number the more the stock is considered under-valued or "cheap." Of the five largest stocks in the fast food industry it appears that McDonald's and Tim Horton's have the lowest P/E ratios while Chipotle Mexican Grille has by far the largest P/E ratio. Therefore, using the P/E ratio as our valuation technique, McDonald's and Tim Horton's are the cheapest of the stocks.

    PEG Ratio

    While the price to earnings ratio does a fine job of determining how a stock's share price is trading in relation to the company's underlying earnings, the PEG ratio determines the level a stock's share price is trading in return to its earnings growth. Therefore, bringing the EPS growth rate into the equation we see that Tim Horton's by far has the lowest PEG ratio, while Chipotle Mexican Grille has the largest. Just using the PEG ratio we see that Tim Horton's is the most under-valued of the stocks while Chipotle Mexican Grille is the most over-valued.

    Price to Book Ratio

    The final metric here is the company's price to book value ratio. This ratio shows how a stock's price per share is valued in relation to the company's underlying book value (net tangible assets of the company). By using this ratio we see that the most undervalued stocks are Tim Horton's and McDonald's, while the most overvalued is Chipotle Mexican Grille.

    The Final Results

    After looking at the previous three valuation techniques we can determine which of the five largest fast-food stocks is the "cheapest." The "cheapest" of the stocks is Tim Horton's Inc.. This is due to the company's low P/E ratio, PEG ratio, and Price to Book Value ratio. The most overvalued of the stocks is Chipotle Mexican Grille. In order to show how important these valuation techniques are let's just compare the McDonald's and Starbucks stocks. McDonald's shares cost nearly $50 more than Starbucks, but McDonald's has a lower P/E ratio, PEG ratio, and price to book value ratio, therefore, making McDonald's a relatively cheaper stock despite its higher share price. This just goes to show how important it is to look past a company's share price to determine how under or over priced a stock is.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    ConAgra Foods: Earnings Preview

    ConAgra Foods Inc. (CAG), North America's leading packaged food company, is slated to release its second quarter of fiscal 2011 results on December 21. Based on the first quarter results, ConAgra narrowed its fiscal 2011 earnings per share (EPS) growth expectation from the range of 8%-10% over the fiscal 2010 EPS of $1.74 to just 5%-7%.

    First Quarter Summary
    ConAgra reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2011 slightly below expectations on account of increases in costs and expenses as well as a high domestic inflation rate. EPS (excluding a one-time expense) was 34 cents, down from 38 cents in the year-ago quarter, and net income was $151.6 million, down 10.5% from $169.3 million in the first quarter of fiscal 2010. Reported EPS was far below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 39 cents.

    Net revenue slipped 2.4% to $2,817.6 million from $2,886.3 million in the corresponding quarter of fiscal 2010 and also below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,975 million. The decrease in total revenues was due to a 3.2% decrease in revenues from the Commercial Foods segment and a 1.9% decrease in the Consumer Food segment.

    For details please click on the link: ConAgra Underperforms

    Agreement of Analysis
    The slower market recovery and increase in costs in the first quarter have pushed the analysts to reduce their estimates. Commodities form the primary cost for ConAgra as it uses various raw materials such as wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, beef, pork and poultry. Commodities are subject to price volatility caused by market fluctuations, supply and demand, currency fluctuations and changes in governmental agricultural programs. Thus, commodity price increases will result in increases in raw material costs and operating costs.

    The decrease in the EPS growth expectations in fiscal 2011 was also a reason for the lower estimate. Hence, for the second quarter of fiscal 2011, 8 out of 9 analysts have lowered their estimates and for fiscal 2011, all the 10 analysts following the stock have moved their estimates with none moving in the opposite direction. For fiscal 2012, 6 out of 10 analysts have reduced their estimates, while none of them raising it. Thus, the overall trend was negative.

    Magnitude
    For the second quarter of fiscal 2011, estimates moved down by 5 cents to 45 cents per share and fiscal 2011 estimate declined to $1.76 from $1.84. For fiscal 2012, estimate reduced by only 3 cents to $1.95 per share.

    With respect to earnings surprises, AAR Corp. had a mixed track record in the preceding four quarters. Two out of the last four quarters recorded a negative while the other recorded positive surprises. The average earnings surprise was a negative of 1.56% over the last four quarters, which signifies that the company has fallen short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by that measure.

    Our Recommendation
    Despite poor first quarter results, we reiterate our Neutral recommendation on the stock based on the company's various strategic moves, which significantly enhances its portfolio. In the first quarter, ConAgra acquired American Pie for approximately $130 million and divested Gilroy Foods & Flavors dehydrated vegetable operations to Olam International for $250 million. The company's expectation to save $275 million in fiscal 2011 through cost-reduction initiatives also inspires our optimism.

    However, the highly-competitive food industry and extremely volatile commodity prices are matters of prime concern. Thus, the stock currently retains its short-term "Sell" rating, equivalent to a Zacks #4 Rank.

    The Decline In Aged Care Standards

    In the past, especially at the beginning of the 20th century, the elderly were much of a heavy burden on their children and descendants. The fluctuating economy made it very hard then and makes it very hard now to care for anyone other than the immediate family, as in spouse and children. One of the main reasons for the decline in aged care standards over the years has been lack of personal and governmental funding.

    As the economy has fluctuated, so has the ability for the elderly to get the kind of attention they require for healthy and happy living. Many of the elderly are forced to rely on relatives to take them in when they get older and are unable to care for themselves.

    The aging population is struggling now as it was before. It is difficult for some to find a place where they can get the attention they need to be happy and healthy. The reasons for this happening are many. Most families today have trouble getting by and cannot afford to have another family member to support, feed, clothe and shelter.

    Some families will consider a nursing home as an alternative to bringing their loved one into their own homes. The family may not be able to provide the aging relative with the care they need because they are not trained in medical ways and do not see a way to have an in-home If a nursing home is being considered, the family should always take the time to do research on the background and history of the home. They should check all qualifications of staff and healthcare workers. Prices will be of importance, since many of these homes are not inexpensive. Some insurance companies will help families carry this burden. Every question that can be asked should be asked to ensure the loved one is happy and safe in the home.

    The problems with caring for the elderly in nursing homes have been brought to the attention of lawmakers in the past few decades. Because of the issues that many have seen and experienced, laws, rules and regulations in these homes have changed to make sure the elderly are being cared for properly.

    The family members that care about their aging relative will want to screen the staff members that will be caring for their loved one. A good idea is to ask the residents in the home who have been there a while about their opinion. If they have a high opinion of their home, feel comfortable, safe and happy, they will let everyone know it.

    Do not settle with a place that you do not feel comfortable with. If you are not comfortable, chances are your loved one will not either. Make sure the staff is professional, kind and considerate. Do not read the brochures and assume all is well. Do your research to keep your loved one safe.

    Some people are still focused on the decline in aged care standards, encouraging change and praising the positive steps taken so far. The elderly today are treated much better than ever before. The main goal is to make sure they are treated with respect and kindness wherever they are. Homes are now made to uphold the laws and treat the residents well.

    Visit our website for complete details about the reasons for the decline in aged care Queensland standards over the last century, now. You can also find more information about a friendly and caring assisted living community, today.

    Canadian Solar: Q3 Changes the Trend

    Canadian Solar’s (CSIQ) overall shipments increased in the third quarter 2010 by 10%, reaching the 200 megawatt level and besting the company’s third quarter shipping guidance. Solar cell production is increasing and reducing reliance on third party purchases to fill customer orders. Revenues rebounded nicely in the third quarter 2010, as well as the company’s gross margin and net income margin. The company expects gross margin to improve as third party product purchases decrease. Fourth quarter of 2010 gross margin guidance projection is 17% to 18% compared to 17.3% in the third quarter. We calculated a positive operating cash flow for the company in the third quarter of 2010. Improved receivables collection helped to achieve the company’s second consecutive quarter of positive operating cash flows.

    The company ranks in the bottom half of its peer group on six of the eight quantitative metrics. The company ranks 29th in operating cash flow-to-net income for the last-12 months based on our calculations. The company’s limited cash flow from operations in the last-12 months negatively impacts the company’s free cash flow-to-net income and cash conversion cycle ratios. As the company relies more on internally produced solar cells the company’s low ranking of 26th for gross margin for the last-12 months should improve. The company uses short-term debt as its main source of financing; however, the company issued 6.9 million shares of common stock in fiscal 2009 that raised over $100 million. The debt-to-equity and cash-to-debt ratios rank favorably in the industry at number 18 and 11, respectively.

    Based on our calculations, the company’s cost per watt was below the industry average for six of last eight quarters. In the third quarter of 2010, the trend changed as cost per watt of $1.56 is 10.6% above the industry average. The company shipped 200.4 MW of solar cells in the third quarter 2010 compared to 181.2 MW in the second quarter 2010. While the company shipped 10.6% more in the third quarter of 2010; it also produced 18.2% more solar cells in the third quarter. Revenue per watt rose $0.07 per watt to $1.88 per watt in the third quarter of 2010 compared to $1.81 per watt in the second quarter. The company equaled the industry average for the third quarter 2010 even though revenues per watt on average are declining. The industry average fell 16.4% or $0.37 per watt in the third quarter versus the second quarter 2010. The company’s gross margin increased by 370 basis points to 17.3% in the third quarter of 2010 compared to the second quarter. The $0.33 margin per watt of in the third quarter of 2010 is a $.08 per watt improvement compared to $0.25 per watt in the second quarter.

    The company’s quarterly earnings announcement does not include full cash flow statements or footnote disclosures. The company is downgraded to Ds for governance and disclosure due to material weaknesses in the company’s internal controls. The company disclosed it is in the process of correcting the control deficiencies, but “cannot assure you that the material weaknesses identified in this annual report will be adequately remedied or will be fully remedied by any specific date.” In addition the company’s material weaknesses caused the company to miss its Form 20-F filing deadline for the fiscal year ended Dec. 31, 2009.

    Additional analysis of Canadian Solar and its peer group can be found here.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    SM: Making Sense of 401(k) Disclosures

    Sometime this year your 401(k) quarterly statement will arrive, as usual, in your mailbox. What won't be usual, however, is what's inside the envelope or email. That's because the quarterly statement will feature not just the usual mumbo jumbo that you're accustomed to reviewing (or not), but a whole lot more.

    Also See
    • The Costliest States for Retirement
    • Retire Here, Not There: South Carolina
    • How to Calculate 401(k) Tax Expenditures

    Under a new Labor Department regulation that goes into effect this year, sponsors of retirement plans will be required to disclose detailed information about plan features, investment options, and fees and expenses to participants, beneficiaries, and even workers who are eligible to participate in a plan but don't.

    According to a statement issued today by the Labor Dept. plan administrators for what are called calendar-year plans now must make the initial annual disclosure of "plan-level" and "investment-level" information -- including associated fees and expenses -- to participants no later than Aug. 30, 2012, and the first quarterly statement (for fees incurred July through September) must be furnished no later than Nov. 14, 2012. The Labor Department also released today a companion set of rules outlining how companies that administer 401(k) and similar plans must disclose administrative and investment costs to employers who sponsor the plans.

    The Labor Department will not, however, require that sponsors of retirement plan, your employer, provide a decoder ring with all that new information. So, allow us to fill in the void.

    First, this: The new regulation applies to what are called officially called ERISA-covered participant-directed plans, according to Larry Goldbrum, the general counsel of the SPARK Institute, a nonprofit group representing retirement plan recordkeepers and administrators.

    In essence, that means all sponsors of 401(k) plans and many 403(b) plans will have to comply with the new regulation.

    The regulation does not, however, apply to sponsors of Simplified Employee Pension Plans (SEPS) and SIMPLE (Savings Incentive Match Plan for Employees of Small Employers) IRA plans.

    Nor does it apply to IRAs. (ERISA, by the way, is the acronym for the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, a federal law that establishes minimum standards for pension plans in private industry.)

    Now truth be told, your employer won't be doing the disclosing per se. It's likely that your employer will ask the plan's recordkeeper to distribute the necessary information to employees.

    But no matter who's doing the disclosing, here's what you can expect, according to Goldbrum and other interviewed for this column. There are three basic types of disclosures required: investment-related, plan-related and then fees and expense disclosure.

    Investment-related disclosures

    Sponsors will be required to present information about the investment options in the retirement plan in a chart that allows plan participants to compare fees and expenses, Goldbrum said.

    And the disclosures must be made for mutual funds, bank collective investment funds, insurance annuity products, funds of funds, and asset allocation portfolios.

    Plan sponsors can use a model chart developed by the Labor Department or they can develop their own.

    According to Goldbrum, the following information is required for each investment option in the chart:

    "The value of this is that it will give participants to see comparable information for all of funds in a single place," he said.

    Tom Gonnella, senior vice president of corporate development at Lincoln Trust Co., said the Labor Department's model chart is a step in the right direction, but it fails to provide 401(k) plan participants with truly personalized information. "These disclosures have fallen far short of where they need to be," he said. "It's nowhere near where we need to be to give employees a very clear sense of exactly what they are paying for their retirement plan."

    For instance, Gonnella, said workers will have to calculate how much they have paid for their investments based on the balances in their respective investments. "What's required is just a percentage relative to every $1,000 invested," he said. "A participant will have to go in fund by fund and calculate what they are actually paying their retirement plan."

    But Goldbrum said the cost of providing that sort of detailed and personalized information would likely outweigh the benefits. "It would be illogical to require the employer to provide more detailed information than the fund itself has to provide to its investors," he said. Plus, most retirement plan participants, he said, could easily calculate the expenses associated with their 401(k) investments. "If you know the rate and how much you have invested, it's a relatively simple calculation for you to do to get a ballpark as to what you are paying."

    Plan-related disclosures

    Goldbrum also said plan sponsors have to provide a description of the plan administrative expenses that may be charged or deducted from participant accounts and how they will be allocated. This could include legal and accounting expenses and anything not embedded in the investment funds that will be charged, Goldbrum said.

    "The most common plan-related expenses are recordkeeping, or these administrative expenses that are somehow or another not charged to the investments," said Goldbrum. "Investment-related expenses are the most significant and largest fee item that plans and participants pay. But there are some items that might not be paid through the investments and those items, if the plan sponsor or employer elects not to pay those themselves but instead charge them to the plan, then that has to be disclosed. And the manner in which the allocation will be made also has to be disclosed."

    The recordkeeper, for the record, is usually charged with the following administrative functions: providing a website, call center, quarterly statements, processing trades and the like. In some cases the recordkeeper might be one in the same as the plan provider. In other cases, it might be a separate company.

    The employer gets to decide whether they are going to pay for such fees out of their own pocket or whether they want to pass those costs on to the plan, and allocated among participants.

    Fees and expenses

    According to Goldbrum, the quarterly statements that participants receive must disclose the amount of fees and expenses actually charged to a participant account and a description of the services for which the fees were charged.

    And, if applicable, Goldbrum said, plan sponsors must also provide a notice that plan administrative expenses were paid from the operating expenses of one or more investment options, for example 12b-1 fees and revenue sharing or what are sometimes called fee offsets.

    "What (plan participants) are going to see is a statement on their benefit statement that tells them if some of the recordkeeping expenses are being paid for through revenue sharing," he said. "But in the end, that doesn't change what the plan participant pays because the revenue sharing is part of the expenses of the fund. So ultimately what the plan participant pays are the expense ratios of the fund. If there's revenue sharing, that means the mutual fund company is giving some of that money from the expense ratio back to the employer to subsidize the cost of operating the plan. It's essentially the mutual fund company helping the employer pay to operate the plan. That payment doesn't change what participants. The participant will pay just the expense ratio."

    Goldbrum said participants might not see the phrase "revenue sharing" on their statements, but they will see disclosure -- if there is revenue sharing -- to this effect: The administrative expenses of the plan were paid out of the operating expenses of one or more of the investment options. "The Department of Labor is going to require that on the participant's statement, the employer tell the employees if there are those offsets or if there is revenue sharing. They are not going to be required to get into the detail of how much and what fund," said Goldbrum.

    Gonnella said participants will have to examine the all recordkeeping costs being charged to a plan and then determine how much of those costs apply to them. "It's going to be a bit complex," he said. "I'm not even sure most employees are going to understand it."

    Of note, the Investment Company Institute and Deloitte have published research detailing the mechanics of plan fees.

    What to focus on

    Goldbrum said much of the information about 401(k) fees and expenses that will be disclosed under the new regulation is already generally available and not new. But what is new is the comparative chart. The chart puts all the information in one place. "It will be easier to find and easier to digest," said Goldbrum.

    "It will be good opportunity for participants to evaluate the different investment options that are available to them, make sure they are invested the way they want or make adjustments," he said. "And if they don't understand the information it's a good opportunity for them to call the service provider or their adviser and look for some help. It's a good opportunity to do a checkup."

    He also said participants shouldn't just focus solely on the expenses associated with their investment options. "Expenses are just one part the investment decision equation," he said. "Participants should absolutely look at what they are paying for the different investments," but also take into account their asset allocation objectives and how the funds are performing.

    Gonnella agreed that plan participants shouldn't make decisions based on cost, but they should be "laser-focused on what (their) investment costs are." Finding the best funds as dictated by an investment policy statement for the lowest cost would, however, be the goal.

    Gonnella also said it would be ideal for plans sponsors to show plan participants how every penny is spent and why in a 401(k) plan. "There's so much revenue sharing in this industry, it's very confusing to the lay person," he said. "It's even confusing to people in the industry sometimes. But all that should be disclosed."

    Is This Just Another Dead-Cat Bounce?

    �The euro zone has agreed to take a big leap forward in economic integration, but failed to deliver a convincing answer to investors worried about its ability to tackle threatening debt crises in Italy and Spain.� Reuters, Berlin, Dec 9.

    The stock market rallied on Friday following an agreement from the euro zone to provide the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with up to E200 billion in loans. Britain, however, made it clear that it will not support the process, so whether the pact will hold together is questionable. Britain is the third largest economy in the EU, and without their cooperation concerns remain that the zone could fracture into the old country-by-country currency.

    Italy�s 10-year bond rose to over 6.5% from 6% earlier in the week, which puts it close to the 7% level that economists have said is unsustainable. The euro made small progress on Friday climbing to $1.3363 from $1.3347 on Thursday. A Wall Street Journal editorial on Saturday began by saying, �The euro-zone crisis started in the bond markets — and despite the deal at the European summit, it still lives there.�

    For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.9%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%.

    On Friday, the Dow was up 1.55%, the S&P 500 gained 1.69%, and the Nasdaq was up 1.94%. Volume on the NYSE totaled 819 million shares, while the Nasdaq traded 440 million. Breadth was positive on both exchanges with advancers ahead of decliners by 6-to-1 on the Big Board and 4.5-to-1 on the Nasdaq.

    Although Friday�s rally erased most of Thursday�s loss, volume lagged on both exchanges and was well below the quarter�s daily average. A lower-volume rebound after a plunge tells us that there are few committed long-term buyers in the crowd, and so the chances of another dead-cat bounce are high. In plain language the bounce was composed mostly of traders and low institutional participation — not the stuff of major bullish breakouts.�

    And The New York Times headline of the day, �Leaders Agree on Fiscal Pact,� did little to shore up the euro, which rose fractionally. The U.S. dollar, as tracked by the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:UUP), fell just 7 cents.

    Immediate support is tracking an uptrend line at about $22.05, but more significant support is at the 50-day moving average at $21.91. Note that overall volume is declining, which favors the dollar�s bulls. But watch the price movement closely for a clue as to whether Friday�s rally �has legs.� And if you are looking for fast profits, check out my colleague John Jagerson who turned a 67% profit overnight last week.

    Conclusion: The technical trend of the market is still a long-term bear market. The intermediate term is sideways, and the short-term trend is up. A failure to penetrate the 200-day moving average at 1,263 and the October high at 1,293 is serious in that three attempts have failed and each attempt was with lower volume. Initial support for the S&P 500 is at the 50-day moving average line at 1,220, but a Fibonacci retracement of 61.8% of the November low to December high renders a target of 1,200.

    In this headline-driven market, focus on the movement of the U.S. dollar for a clue as to the stock market�s next move.

    SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD) CEO Tom Ward Has Done it Again


    SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD) is a company that I'm very familiar with - and yet it's an enigma even to me.

    I mean that quite literally.

    You see, I recently paid a visit to the SandRidge building during a trip to Oklahoma City. After getting my security badge, I began to make my way to the 12th floor.

    There was just one problem: When I got into the elevator there were no buttons below 16.
    What do you do when you go to see someone and their floor isn't on the list? I decided to ride the lift all the way to the top floor.

    Fortunately, the staff that met me at the top floor was kind enough to point me in the right direction - but not before I looked around a little bit.

    I just couldn't help but be entranced by the amount of activity up there. The top floor of the SandRidge building was absolutely humming.

    Well, what I didn't know at the time was that Sand Ridge was about to shock everyone. The company was about to go where nobody expected.

    Tom Ward - SandRidge's CEO and a man best known as the co-founder of Chesapeake Energy Corp. (NYSE: CHK) - was taking his new company to the dreaded Gulf of Mexico resource basin.

    It would soon be revealed that SandRidge had agreed to buy Dynamic Offshore Resources LLC - an offshore energy producer - at a time when most oil and gas companies are moving operations onshore.

    Basically, Ward is taking a real contrarian approach to asset-gathering. He saw flowing oil assets being sold cheap and decided he wanted the whole company before it could be priced to the market.

    Tom Ward is one of the true wildcat businessmen of the oil and gas sector. He left Chesapeake Energy when it was at a peak in 2006. He saw the transition in shale and adjusted early at SandRidge. Now he's buying up offshore production.

    As investors we should take note. It's often a good idea to pay attention to what the true visionaries are doing.

    So it's time to "Buy" SandRidge Energy Inc. (**) and watch what Tom Ward does with the underpriced assets.

    SandRidge Energy's Gusher in the GulfLet's take a quick look at the deal itself. It has a nameplate value of $1.275 billion, which is made up of 74 million shares at $8.02 a piece and $680 million in cash.

    I like that the assets purchased came at a discount to their SEC PV-10 value. I like that the company was able to pay for half of it with equity. These assets are in shallow waters and will help pay for the onshore developments.

    Ward said in a statement that the assets, which were valued at more than $50,000 per flowing barrel, will contribute free cash flow in excess of $200 million.

    SandRidge drilled 970 wells in 2011. Oil production increased by 70%, while overall production was up 16%. The company plans on drilling more than 1,100 new wells in 2012.

    "As larger and larger companies want to come onshore and compete, service costs are rising and they're moving away from a traditional place that was the cheapest and that's the Gulf of Mexico," said Ward. "We look at this as a very large opportunity to be contrarian but also for value."

    Investors should look at it the same way.

    SandRidge currently trades with a market cap of $3 billion. Taking net cash and debt levels into consideration, the company has a $5.5 billion enterprise value.

    SandRidge is headquartered in Oklahoma City. The company has over 2,000 full-time equivalent employees. As of December 31, 2010, its estimated proved reserves were 545.9 million barrels of oil equivalent, of which approximately 46% were oil. The company also had interests in 5,323 gross producing wells, as well as in approximately 1,982,000 gross acres under lease.

    Action to Take: "Buy" SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD) (**). The company has seen the future and taken the necessary steps to position itself for it.

    CEO Tom Ward is one of the best market-timers in history, and when everyone is trying to sell assets for a discount, he is the type to step forward and purchase the discounted assets.

    So let's pick up 50% of our position now at these prices. We can put in a limit order 10% below our first fill to finish off the position during the next weak cycle in the sector.

    (**) Special Note of Disclosure: Jack Barnes has no interest in SandRidge Energy Inc. (NYSE: SD).

    UBS Sees Strong Fast Food Trends, Says Buy MCD, YUM

    �March saw a sequential slowdown in casual dining, but UBS analyst David Palmer remains bullish about fast food, as he believes momentum held steady in the sector and same store sales growth for both February and March are likely to be 4%-5%.

    He maintained Buy ratings on both McDonald�s (MCD) and Yum Brands (YUM) although he was more enthusiastic about the latter.

    For McDonald�s Palmer maintained his earnings per share estimates for the first quarter of $1.21, two cents below consensus. �We forecast March SSS growth for US, Europe, and APMEA SSS 9%, 5%, and 6% respectively, including approximately +2pp of calendar shift per region. While we are confident that US sales momentum remained strong, we are somewhat less certain about Europe given the weaker February and the limited time to adjust marketing. We expect McDonald’s Europe to shift marketing focus toward value to preserve traffic momentum–potentially at the expense of earnings upside.

    As for Yum, he sees EPS of 74 cents a share, two cents ahead of the consensus as he sees mid-teen same stores sales growth in China, which accounts for nearly half of the firm�s profit. �We estimate that US SSS growth will be in the 2-3% range with Pizza Hut in the mid-single digit range, and Taco Bell sales ramping through the quarter. We note that 1Q included only three weeks of the �Doritos Locos� tacos.�

    Palmer also maintained a Hold rating on Chipotle (CMG) even as he is positive about the chain�s traffic and upcoming quarter:

    �We are maintaining our above consensus EPS and same store sales (SSS) growth estimates following results of our proprietary consumer panel through March. Based on the panel, we continue to believe that 1Q SSS growth will fall within the 10-13% range and are accordingly forecasting 11%. We also estimate that leap day added approximately +1pp to SSS growth in the quarter.

    With Chipotle’s stock up 28% year to date, we believe the market may be expecting SSS growth near the high end of our 10-13% SSS range. In addition to recent sales, investors will try to understand if labor productivity initiatives could help SSS growth momentum continue even during the peak summer sales months, and if food cost leverage can significantly improve in 2H12.

    Although we are maintaining our Neutral rating, our estimates reflect a view closer to that of our original best case earnings growth scenario. While our valuation work suggests that shares are close to fair value our base case now assumes Chipotle reaches a McDonald�s-like AUV of ~$2.4M and assumes 240bps of restaurant margin expansion within five years.�

    Forget dollar-cost averaging

    (MONEY Magazine) -- "Should I put all the money I have to invest in the market now or add it gradually over time?" -- Paul B., Louisiana

    During the nearly 30 years I've been at MONEY, dollar-cost averaging -- or moving the same amount of money from cash to stocks and bonds each month over the course of a year or more -- has been largely accepted by market pros and individual savers alike as an ideal way to invest. You don't know when the market will sink or soar, the rationale goes, so you're better off tiptoeing in than taking the plunge. Dollar-cost averaging has achieved the status of investing Truth with a capital T.

    The only problem is that for even longer, economists have known that this is an inefficient way to buy stocks and bonds: Going directly to your ideal asset allocation is more likely to generate a higher return for any given level of risk than moving to that mix gradually. Dollar-cost averaging, it turns out, is more of a psychological crutch than a shrewd investing strategy.

    The trouble with waiting

    Because stocks and bonds usually outperform cash, chances are you'll earn more by getting into the market as quickly as possible. But that's not dollar-cost averaging's biggest shortcoming.

    As an investor, you need to think about your goals, your time horizon, and risk. The best way to address all three factors is to settle on a stock and bond mix that has a realistic shot of delivering reasonable long-term returns with a level of volatility that you can accept -- and then rebalance periodically. Generally, the more time you have and the more comfortable you are dealing with market downturns, the more you should allocate to stocks. (To arrive at a blend, use a tool like Morningstar's Asset Allocator.)

    Let's say you have $120,000 in cash and decide on a mix of 60% stocks and 40% bonds. How do you get to that allocation? You could immediately stash $72,000 into a diversified group of stocks and $48,000 into a broad range of bonds. Or you could shift $10,000 a month ($6,000 into stocks, $4,000 into bonds) over a year.

    If you go that second route, think about what you're actually doing. After deciding on a 60/40 blend, you'll need more than a year to reach that goal. As the table below shows, what you're really doing during that time is going through a series of allocations that are too conservative. By dollar-cost averaging, you're undermining the asset-allocation strategy you settled on.

    Ah, but what if stock and bond prices fall during those 12 months? Wouldn't you come out ahead if you had averaged in? Yes, you probably would. The opposite is true, however, if stocks and bonds had done well throughout the year. The point is you never know what the markets will do. That uncertainty is why you set an asset allocation in the first place.

    Money 70: Funds to count on

    Here's another way to think about it: If dollar-cost averaging is so great, why stop doing it once you're fully invested? The threat of sudden downturns will still be there. So why not liquidate your portfolio and dollar-cost-average back into stocks and bonds all over again? And then do it again and again? Clearly, such a strategy is absurd. Yet investing gradually instead of committing to your target portfolio all at once amounts to the same thing.

    When to ignore the math

    Does investing small sums over time ever make sense? Sure, we do it all the time by directing payroll deductions into our 401(k)s. That's because, as a practical matter, we can't make a big contribution all at once. When you have the money upfront, it's smarter not to delay.

    That said, dollar-cost averaging could be a valid option if you find it too psychologically or emotionally difficult to jump into the market all at once. (Of course, the real problem might be that your target allocation is too aggressive.) But then you should try to limit the damage by averaging in over a few weeks or months instead of a year or more.

    In fact, even though Chris Jones, chief investment officer of the 401(k) advice firm Financial Engines, believes that dollar-cost averaging is essentially an inferior strategy, his firm typically "transitions" clients into their recommended portfolio allocations over two or three months. Notes Jones: "We've learned that's what makes people most comfortable."

    Tiptoeing In Can Leave You Too Timid

    If you decide on a 60% stock/40% bond mix, investing your lump sum that way over 12 months could mean 11 months of a too-conservative portfolio.

    PORTFOLIO ALLOCATION

    End of 3 months:

    • Cash - 75%
    • Stocks - 15%
    • Bonds - 10%

    End of 6 months:

    • Cash - 50%
    • Stocks - 30%
    • Bonds - 20%

    End of 9 months:

    • Cash - 25%
    • Stocks - 45%
    • Bonds - 30%

    End of year:

    • Stocks - 60%
    • Bonds - 40%

    NOTES: Assumes 12 equal investments, each divided 60% stocks and 40% bonds; excludes investment returns.

    SOURCE: Money research

    Do you know a Money Hero? MONEY magazine is celebrating people, both famous and unsung, who have done extraordinary work to improve others' financial well-being. Send an email to nominate your Money Hero. 

    Top Stocks For 5/21/2012-11

    Monday Dec. 21, 2009

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB: CRWE.OB) Recent Headlines

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB: CRWE.OB) has established itself as a top tier consulting firm which continues to provide and assist small business owners with the knowledge required in taking their company public. However, the company has re-focused its primary vision to that of an online media advertising/awareness publisher, focused on serving the needs of the clients, as well as being dedicated to the distribution of quality branding information.

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. can play a role in building and capturing awareness for a public company through one of the fastest growing media channels in the world: The Internet, with over a thousand third and second party websites making up its network, which is in addition to their opt-in e-mail list.

    - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. Entered Into Letter of Intent with DJ Toys Enterprise Corp and Yana Venture Philanthropy Group

    November 13, 2009 � Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (CRWE.OB) announced that it has entered into Letters of Intent to enter into business combinations with DJ Toys Enterprise Corporation and Yana Venture Philanthropy Group, both of which are Taiwan corporations.

    �From a company standpoint, the acquisition of DJ Toys and Yana will result in our shareholders having stakes in additional profitable, operating companies,� stated Kenneth Bosket, CEO and President of Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. The companies are now beginning due diligence reviews and negotiating the terms of definitive, material agreements. Once the reviews are completed and terms agreed to, the parties will work to execute an agreement. The agreements are not expected to close until the first quarter of 2010.

    - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. Entered Into Agreement With TTNews of Taiwan

    Nov. 17, 2009 - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB: CRWE.OB) announced that it has entered into a Mutual Assistance and Technical Cooperation Agreement with TTNews of Taiwan.

    Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. through CRWENewswire and TTNews, authorized each other to disseminate and publish the other�s news source and grant them mutual rights for the re-publication and dissemination of their respective news transmission.

    - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. to Assist Global TTNews of Taiwan With Becoming a Publicly Traded Company in the United States

    Dec. 4, 2009 - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB: CRWE.OB) announced that it has entered into an agreement to assist Global TTNews, a Taiwan web-based company that is in the business of providing travel websites for people interested in traveling in and around China, to go public immediately.

    Crown Equity Holdings is an advocate for clients during the IPO process, giving their knowledge on the complex risks they face as a public company.

    �Global TTNews is interested in becoming publicly traded in the United States securities market,� said Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. CEO / President, Kenneth Bosket. �We want to be there to assist them.�

    - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. Acquires Larger Office Facility

    Dec. 8, 2009 - Crown Equity Holdings, Inc. (OTC BB: CRWE.OB) announced the expansion of its operations. The company will relocate to a new and larger office effective December 15th. The new corporate address will be located at 5440 W. Sahara Avenue. Suite 205, Las Vegas, Nevada 89146.

    Since January 1, 2009, the company has added 13 additional contractors, a 225% increase.

    THIS IS NOT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY!

    Wednesday, August 29, 2012

    Three Glencore Xstrata Takeover Targets: TCK, AAL, FCX

    The proposed mega-merger of Glencore International PLC and Xstrata PLC will create a global powerhouse with the potential to shake up the mining industry overnight.

    If completed, the $90 billion deal will form a mining behemoth with control over one-third of the global market for thermal coal, and make it the world's largest producer of integrated zinc production. It will also rank as the world's third-largest copper producer and fourth-largest nickel producer.

    Basically, the merger would create a super-giant that could compete with the industry's heavyweights - BHP Billiton Ltd. (NYSE ADR: BBL), Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE ADR: RIO), and Vale (NYSE ADR: VALE) - the mining industry's "Big Three."

    The merger is certain to spark volatility in the sector, according to Money Morning Global Resources Specialist Peter Krauth, an expert in metals and mining stocks who runs the Global Resource Forecast investment service.

    "What observers need to understand is consolidation like this concentrates decision making," Krauth said. "The fewer participants in an industry, the more impact they have.

    When output is either increased or decreased by one or more mega producers, it will also have a larger impact on world supplies, and therefore prices."

    With that kind of power, the Glencore-Xstrata deal will form a goliath with the appetite - and the muscle - to swallow its weaker rivals.

    Glencore Xstrata: Hungry for MergersBased on estimated 2011 results compiled by Credit Suisse Group AG (NYSE ADR: CS), the new company would have revenue of $211.3 billion and net profit of $7.5 billion. That kind of clout would make its stock valuable currency for more acquisitions.

    Plus, both companies are led by aggressive chief executives that have a history of snapping up competitors.

    Xstrata has been racking up spectacular growth through acquisitions, although lately it has focused on organic or internal growth to boost production by 50% by 2014.

    Glencore, a trader of metals, minerals and oil, has said the main idea behind going public after almost four decades as a private company was to grab acquisitions.

    Of course, the new company would have more going for it than sheer size and a forceful management team.

    Glencore has a giant global intelligence network of 2,000 employees in about 40 countries. Many of them are traders and marketers that collect extensive data on what commodity buyers want and when.

    "Glencore's network makes the CIA look like your grandmother's coffee club," columnist Eric Reguly recently wrote in The Globe & Mail. "It has been adept at forecasting commodity prices based on intimate knowledge of production, demand, regulations, political whims, transport costs and movements everywhere."

    Glencore's intelligence network will likely direct it to takeover targets that have iron ore resources, an area where Xstrata currently lacks exposure.

    The industry's Big Three control nearly 70% of the one billion-ton annual iron ore seaborne trade, along with contract pricing. Lately they've been dampening prices by flooding the market with iron ore, driving high-cost producers out of the business.

    But their mushrooming market shares have triggered more regulatory reviews by concerned governments. That should clear the way for the new Glencore Xstrata entity to target smaller competitors without the Big Three interfering.

    Glencore Xstrata Takeover Targets: TCK, AAL, FCXOne takeover candidate is Teck ResourcesLtd. (NYSE: TCK), according to Krauth.

    Teck is a $24 billion Canadian-based diversified miner, producing copper, metallurgical coal, zinc, lead and molybdenum, as well as precious metals like silver and gold.

    "It's the largest diversified mining company in Canada, the number one producer of metallurgical coal in North America, the number two exporter of met coal in the world and trades at a reasonable price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 10," Krauth noted.

    The candidate considered most likely to be targeted is Anglo American PLC, which will be the sixth largest iron ore miner after the merger is completed. Industry insiders have called a Glencore Xstrata takeover of Anglo American "blatantly obvious."

    In 2009, Xstrata offered Anglo a no-premium "merger of equals." But Anglo's CEO, Cynthia Carroll, rejected the offer.

    With a market cap of $90 billion, Xstrata and Glencore together would be almost 40% bigger than Anglo. That leaves the new Glencore Xstrata company in position to pay a high price and or even launch a hostile bid, if necessary.

    Mark Tyler, head of resource financing at Nedbank, told Fox Business that AAL shareholders could push for a deal after a Glencore Xstrata merger, since power in the industry would shift and leave Anglo American struggling for market share.

    Finally, even copper giant Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is considered a takeover candidate. It has heavy exposure to both gold and copper - it expects to produce 3.8 billion pounds of the red metal in 2012 - and both metals should jump in price this year.

    FCX, however, is the most expensive of the Glencore Xstrata takeover targets with a $44 billion market value, which could make it too big.

    News & Related Story Links:

    • Money Morning:
      Glencore International, Xstrata Could Make the Next Biggest Deal in Global Commodities
    • Money Morning:
      Cash in on the "Takeover Mania" in the Gold-Mining Sector With These Two Stocks
    • Money Morning:
      Buy, Sell or Hold: Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE: FCX) is a Mining Play with a Major Upside
    • Fox Business: Anglo American, A Glencore-Xstrata Takeover Target -Executives
    • The Globe and Mail: Xstrata-Glencore deal a possible game changer

    This Just In: More Upgrades and Downgrades

    At The Motley Fool, we poke plenty of fun at Wall Street analysts and their endless cycle of upgrades, downgrades, and "initiating coverage at neutral." While the pinstripe-and-wingtip crowd is entitled to its opinions, we've got some pretty sharp stock-pickers down here on Main Street, too. (And we're not always impressed with how Wall Street does its job.)

    Given this, perhaps we shouldn't be giving virtual ink to "news" of analyst upgrades and downgrades. And we wouldn't � if that were all we were doing. Fortunately, in "This Just In," we don't simply tell you what the analysts said. We also show you whether they know what they're talking about.

    Drinking the Kool-Aid
    SodaStream (Nasdaq: SODA  ) shareholders' cups runneth over. Last week, as you may recall, the company's shares popped 11% on news that they would be partnering with Kraft Foods (NYSE: KFT  ) to market a line of "Crystal Light" and "Country Time."

    At the time, my fellow Fool Rick Munarriz argued that this was, quote, "huge" news for SodaStream. That a "global giant" like Kraft would choose to ally itself with tiny SodaStream, rather than squash it like a bug with a solo entry into the homemade pop market, was surprising � because, as Rick pointed out, SodaStream lacked the patent protection that has forced other big-name consumer goods giants to partner with, for example, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq: GMCR  ) .

    Rick's not alone in this line of thinking, either. Yesterday, ace food products analyst Dougherty & Co. (a long-time fan of Green Mountain) announced that it was initiating coverage of SodaStream with a "buy" rating and a $45 price target. If correct, Dougherty's prediction suggests upside approaching 20% for SodaStream at today's prices. But is Dougherty right about this?

    Drunk with power
    Fresh from notching back-to-back market "beats" with its twin recommendations of fast-growing Green Mountain, Dougherty now tells investors to expect similar good things from SodaStream. As quoted on StreetInsider.com, Dougherty argues SodaStream is in the midst of "a major distribution expansion in the US, which will fuel strong revenue growth into 2012."

    And I don't necessarily disagree. As far as "revenue growth" goes, SodaStream has enjoyed success, roughly doubling its annual sales over the past three years. Problem is, it's not revenue growth that worries me. It's profits.

    I don't know about you, but personally, I invest in businesses in the hopes they will earn cash from their endeavors � not just sell increasing quantities of goods with no cash returns to show for it. That's key to why I'm not investing in SodaStream myself, despite the fact that it's an official Motley Fool Rule Breakers recommendation.

    Technically "profitable," as GAAP accounting standards define such things, SodaStream has struggled to rack up real cash profits where they matter most: on the cash flow statement. After showing strong free cash flow growth in the 2007?2009 period, SodaStream slipped into negative territory in 2010, and increased its rate of cash burn in 2011.

    Soda & cheese: Two great tastes that taste great together?
    This is not a trend I find encouraging. I'm similarly unenthused about the Kraft deal � and I'll tell you why. Rick, Dougherty, and other analysts seem to believe the Kraft deal is some kind of game-changer for SodaStream. But me, I'm not so sure. To me, this looks more like a low-risk gambit Kraft is making � a cheap bet that it might steal a bit of market share from in-store soda sellers Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO  ) and Pepsico (NYSE: PEP  ) by riding on the coattails of the fast-growing SodaStream.

    Think about it. What is Kraft really risking by doing this deal with SodaStream? Best case, the idea takes off and Kraft gets to market a lot more drink mix to SodaStream fans. Coke and Pepsi find their soda supremacy disrupted, and Kraft becomes a major player in the carbonated beverages market. Worse case ... what? Kraft sells a few more packets of flavored aspartame before the fad dies out? That's about all the downside there is for Kraft in this deal.

    Foolish takeaway
    But here's the problem in a nutshell: While Kraft is risking very little in allying itself with SodaStream, investors who gamble on the stock's success are making a much riskier bet. They're betting that this company � which burned through $21.6 million in negative free cash flow over the past 12 months � will figure out a way to earn real cash profits to back up its $27.7 million in positive reported income.

    Maybe it will, maybe it won't. The only thing I'm sure of is that SodaStream investors are spelling "risk" K-R-A-F-T.