No Coup, No Grace

The economic data failed to give an excuse to administer the coup de grace to the commodity bulls, the equity bulls, and the bond bears. Initial Claims was as-expected; PPI a tiny bit higher than expected but nothing alarming. Retail Sales was also about as-expected but with upward revisions. Without the tailwind from a weaker data print, markets couldn’t push through the relevant technical levels…at least for a day.

So stocks and commodities were able to recover a little, and 10y notes dropped back to 3.23%. This is at this point nothing more than a failure to commit, rather than a failure. The economic outlook is certainly less than completely rosy. 434k Initial Claims is not exactly soothing, except when compared to last week’s spike (see Chart, click to enlarge). And, I suppose, when compared to a year ago when 470k was fairly routine. But it is still one of the worst levels of the year.

Good or bad Claims? Depends on what your frame of reference is.