Friday, December 20, 2013

AbbVie: No Upside For Hep-C, Little Upside For Stock, Morgan Stanley Says

AbbVie (ABBV) has fallen today after Morgan Stanley downgraded its shares from Overweight to Equal Weight.

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Morgan Stanley analyst David Risinger explains the AbbVie cut:

ABBV is close to our $57 price target, and news reported by Gilead (GILD) and Targacept this week lowers the probability of our bull case….

Gilead's top-line hepatitis-c data was exceptional, and we no longer see upside potential for AbbVie hep-c sales. GILD's regimen has an efficacy/safety profile and dosing schedule (one pill, once daily, eight weeks treatment duration) that, in our view, leaves
almost no room for upside to our 30% share estimate for ABBV, unless ABBV discounts aggressively.

Also a concern: AbbVie’s pipeline, while strong, is mostly partnered, leaving less upside potential. Elotuzumab, for instance, is partnered with Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), while Daclizumab is being developed with Biogen Idec Idex (BIIB).

Shares of AbbVie, which were removed from added to Goldman Sachs’ conviction buy list earlier this month, have dropped 3.1% to $52.64 at $3:45 p.m. today, while Gilead has dipped 0.3% to $73.34 and Biogen is off 1.3% to $276.91. Bristol-Myers Squibb has gained 2.2% to $53.77 on hopes for a blockbuster cancer drug.

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