Analog Devices: A Favorite of Longs and Shorts Post-Earnings

Take your pick: A downside move in Analog Devices (ADI) in tonight's after-hours, and we would be looking for an aggressive short play on the shares. If it posts a gain then longs have legs to run.

The historical post-earnings performance data on ADI is seductive for both sides of the trade tonight.

ADI has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours decline in 12 of the 23 quarters Midnight Trader has tracked. In 10 of those quarters, 83% of the time, ADI has followed the evening downside move with a deeper move in the red in the following day's regular session - a stock for shorts to watch on any drop in evening trade.

On the plus-side, ADI has recorded an earnings-driven after-hours gain in 11 of the 23 quarters tracked, adding to its evening advance in next-day regular session action in eight of those events, about 73% of the time.

Analog Devices (ADI) is due to report Q1 results after the bell tonight, and analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expect the company to post a profit of $0.65 per share on revenue of $728 million.

On Nov. 22, 2010, ADI edged up 0.2% in evening trading after topping Q4 expectations and setting its Q1 EPS outlook in line with expectations. The stock reversed direction the next day, closing the Nov. 23 regular session down 0.7%.

On Aug. 17, 2010, ADI advanced 1.6% in after-hours action after beating Q3 expectations. The stock added to its upside the next day, closing the Aug. 18 regular session up 4.4%.

On May 18, 2010, ADI gained 2.4% in after-hours trading following the company's Q2 earnings beat. The company also raised its dividend 10%. Shares added to those gains the next day, closing the regular session up 4.2%.

On Feb. 17, 2010, ADI rose 2.5% in after-hours activity after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results and guidance. The stock extended during the next day's regular session, closing up 4.1%.

On Nov. 23, 2009, ADI edged up 0.8% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. The stock leaped higher the following day, ending the Nov. 24 regular session up 6.4%.

On Aug. 18, 2009, the stock declined 4.7% after reporting a beat and guiding mostly above the Street for Q4. Shares rebounded to gain 2.1% the next day.

On May 19, 2009, ADI jumped 7.8% in after-hours trading after reporting better-than-expected results and guidance. It surged higher the following day, ending up 15.7% in the May 20 regular session.

On Feb. 18, 2009, ADI declined 0.8% in after-hours trading despite topping Q1 expectations. It added to its downside the following day, ending the Feb. 19 regular session down 3.1%.

On Nov. 24, 2008, ADI declined 3.4% in after-hours trading after beating Q4 expectations and issuing earnings guidance below the Street view. The stock added to its declines the next day, losing 6.7% by the Nov. 25 closing bell.

On Aug. 19, 2008, the stock fell 3% during evening trading after EPS missed by a penny. The loss swelled to 8.8% the next day.

On May 20, 2008, the stock fell 1.5% during evening trading after ADI beat Q2 expectations and guided in line to above the Street. The loss increased to 4% the following day.

On Feb. 20, 2008, the stock gained 3.7% in evening trading after ADI reported shy with revenue. The stock gained 3.2% the next day.

On Nov. 27, 2007, the stock gained 2.5% during evening hours after ADI reported in line with EPS and offered mixed guidance. The gain improved to 3.2% the next day.

On Aug 21, 2007, ADI dipped 1.3% in night trading despite topping Q3 estimates. Its guidance was mixed. Shares eased slightly more the next day, ending the regular session down 2.2%.

On May 22, 2007, the stock fell 5.9% in the evening hours after the company reported Q2 revenue up over the year-ago period but earnings edge lower. The loss was a steeper 9.9% the next day.

On Feb. 21, 2007, the stock gained 5.1% in the evening hours after an earnings miss but sales that beat. The gain expanded to 10.4% the next day.

On Nov. 14, 2006, the stock gained 5.6% in the evening session, largely on the company's guidance. The stock was up 1.6% the next day, however.

On Aug. 10, 2006, the stock tumbled 11.7% in the evening hours after the company reported Q3 results that missed the Street's view. The loss deepened to 16.2% the next day.

On May 11, 2006, ADI edged up 2% in after hours when the company reported Q2 sales in line with expectations and guided for Q3 to be above Street views. The shares strengthened further the next day, ending the regular session up 3.8%.

On February 9, 2006, ADI lost 3% in the night session after missing Q1 sales estimates and forecasting for Q2 revenues to be below Street views. The shares fell further the next day, ending the regular session down 4%.

On Nov. 15, 2005, shares fell 1.3% in the evening session after the company reported Q4 revs of $622 million, vs. the FC mean of $615 million. EPS were $0.36 per share. The FC mean was $0.34 per share. Focus was on reduced guidance and shares fell a slightly wider 1.8% the next day.

On Aug. 11, 2005, shares fell 1% on a report of Q3 revs of $582.4 million and EPS Of $0.32 per share, vs. the FC mean of $583 million in revs and EPS of $0.31 per share. Guidance was about in line. Shares declined 3% during the regular session the following day.

On Feb. 10, 2005, the stock shed 1% on word Q1 revenue fell 4% to $580.5 million, below the $587 million FC mean. EPS was $0.28, below the $0.29 FC mean. ADI also guided lower. Shares bounced back to record a 3.3% advance the next day.

Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.